Alert Citizens Forum predicts clear win for BJP in Gujarat; Congress restricts on 49-58

Mumbai, November 8: As soon as the Election Commission announced the schedule for Gujarat Assembly polls, the whole country including media, political parties, people, voters, organizations, companies, businessmen etc everyone wants to know the result as it is a home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But until the final results are disclosed we can only predict. Likewise, Alert Citizens Forum of India has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win 112 to 124 seats While Congress to get 49 to 58 seats.

 

Notably, Alert Citizens Forum of India has conducted an extensive pre-poll survey of the political scenario in Gujarat predicts that BJP is likely to win 112 to 124 seats with the vote share of around 48-49 %. On the other side, Congress to win 49 to 58 seats with the vote share of around 37-39 %.

Report comments: As of now, the Congress only enjoys a lead among Dalits and Muslims over the BJP, the survey points out saying that among these two groups, the BJP has made significant inroads. As compared to the 2012 election, the BJP’s vote share among Dalits and Muslims has increased by 16 and 7 percentage points, respectively. The Congress is relying on a recent alliance of Alpesh Thakor (OSS Ekta Manch - OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Dalit activist leader) – which, the Congress thinks that will help swing a lot of votes for the party. However, their power to influence the voters is yet to be tested at ground level. Speaking about the impact of Hardik Patel, Congress is likely to get overall 40 percent vote share. Congress has an edge over BJP among 30 percent of the total voters (Muslim - 10 percent, Patel - 14 percent, Dalit - 6 percent).

GST is one of the factors which may go against the BJP as people are unhappy with BJP due to the implementation of GST. However, it remains to be seen, whether this unhappiness will make them vote for the Congress. Overall, compared to 2012, BJP seems to have widened its gap over the Congress in terms of vote share. BJP has an edge among 67 percent of the total voters (OBC - 37 percent, ST - 15 percent and General - 15 percent).

The findings of the survey categorically states that the said rumblings about GST are there but not of the extent to convert votes against BJP. Similarly, the Patidar factor will help Congress marginally but it will be offset by Shankarsinh Waghela's exit. Most discussed Alpesh Thakor and Pravin Mewàni are hyped up by the media and don't have the capacity to win seats for the Congress.

Most unfortunate for Congress is the factor that their leader and face of the party Rahul Gandhi is unable to connect with the audience in spite of his new aggressive style of campaigning. People clearly don't believe him.