What next in sordid Indian politics?

Indian democracy is caught at cross-roads on predictable course like rudderless ship caught in a violent storm. Gujarat elections are over. What next? Karnataka, the last Congress Party bastion!

“Change” is nature’s law and inevitable. Ipso facto, the Great Indian Society has shed its elephantine – slow traversing – mode, and shifted gears into steady mode due to information revolution.

Societal transformations are already transcending on a dynamic course what with social media reach extending into remote corners of even rural areas. Its complexity would be mind-benumbing despite attempted microscopic analysis and reviews.

None of the political parties and their leaders can sit back and relax to enjoy power, perks and privileges of elected representatives. If they fail to positively respond to their electorate’s aspirations, they will meet their doom at the next polls due to “Anti-Incumbency” factor.

“We the People” may be “fooled for some time”, but not for “all the time”. Prime Minister Modi must learn from the lessons of the past instead of coining “Jeetega Bhai Jeetega Vikas Jeetega” slogan and depending on it. Slogans like “Gharibi Hatao” or “Congress ka Hath, Aam Admi Ka Sath” or “Incredible or Shining India” failed to deliver after their initial euphoria died down.

Remember all alike must that “the devil is in execution” or fulfilling the pre poll promises particularly fulfilling aspirations of BPL families and the downtrodden.

Admittedly, job creation to meet the ‘population surge or demographic bulge’ is not so easy in today’s cut-throat competition at global level and immigration constraints.

So, what course Indian politics would traverse by 2019 is a “Himalayan Challenge” to predict by the very best of editors/anchors, panellists, columnists and observers, mostly partisan.

Let me recount some of the notable reflections concerning Indian democracy.

De facto, social chemistry governs electoral outcomes. Its vicious churning in the crucible of so called “murky or messy democracy” or effervescence is none too easy to follow sitting in AC Chambers in Delhi or in other capital cities.

Next, one week is too long a period in Indian politics. For example, successful outcome of one major crisis event can alter perceptions and leanings of electorate like a victory in war or “Ram Temple” construction.

People’s sentiments and emotions are like “shifting sand” in a desert storm. The “Dunes” keep changing forms and shapes with the direction of the flow of wind.

Remember always the proverbial adage “Caste, like Cat, has nine lives” which continues to maintain a stranglehold on the “Hindu” Society. Much as one would like to see the “Hindu Society” overcoming the vertical and horizontal divide, caste will continue to play its vicious role in deciding electoral outcomes. With rural village layout clusters still remaining ‘caste’ based compartmentalization, caste affiliations and divide will continue to play a dominant role.

For example, even the “Madiga” and “Mala” divide or rivalry within the Scheduled Castes in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh continues to persist. Similarly, the recent eruption between the “Adivasis” and the “Lambadas” in Telangana and its politicization cannot be wished away for its political fallout.

Furthermore, religions are at “War” with each other particularly with steady financial flows flooding and spurning their activities. More importantly, “Far Right or Ultra” fringe groups are indulging in vicious propaganda to polarize communities on irreconcilable course. An incident of desecration by vested interest groups can drive an irreparable wedge among communities as per past episodes.

Add to them, the present day urban-rural divide based on “Development” (aspirational mantra) vs. “Caste”, “Communal” and “Class” calculus.

In sum, the combined-cum-cumulative mix or churning vastly differs from “State to State”, “Sub region to Sub region” and even “District to District”.

Furthermore, their impact could differ during “National”, “State” and “Local” elections. More importantly, they are also shaped by “situational’ and ‘contextual’ environments.

Neither Modi nor Rahul Ghandy (RG) can make a dent either in Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh or Telangana by whatever unholy coalition pre-poll electoral patch-ups they may attempt in the run up to 2019 elections to gain ascendency over the regional political parties and their “Satraps”.

Corruption is recognized as the most heinous national security threat since I K Gujral rule. “Zero Tolerance against corruption” was coined; but no substantive action against the culprits till date except Sashikala.

“Law takes its own course” is the common refrain to side line the issue. Even Modi with his entire ‘muscular’ image has failed to deliver on the above score. It provides an opportunity to all alike even in States to book the culprits.

RG faces an uphill task of rebuilding the Congress Party having presided over ‘rooting out’ strong local leadership to emerge that may pose a challenge to him like Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh.

Furthermore, no longer RG can adopt the policy of ‘divide and rule’ within the Congress Party based on caste and communal cards like playing the “Reddy’s” against the “Khammas” or the “Velamas” and so on. His revival of the party’s future would depend on building a “team”.

Most importantly, the charisma of the “Dynasty” no longer holds sway over the electorate. In the past, it was common refrain among the “Coterie” of the party, that the ‘Dynasty” blessings or the party symbol is adequate to ensure positive electoral outcomes.

Also, no longer aspiring candidates can expect financial aid from the “Congress High Command.’

Finally, forging opposition unity is not so easy. Naturally, every political party would demand their ‘pound of flesh’ in allocation of tickets. Of course, acceptability of RG as the Prime Ministerial candidate by all other alliance partners would remain a contentious issue.

In contrast, TINA (There is no alternative) factor may favor Modi and the BJP at national level as on date. Will it continue until 2019 is a question to ponder.

But, it does not necessarily mean a ‘cake walk’ for Modi and the BJP. Modi needs to decisively act on many fronts in the near future. Mere economic reforms per se cannot guarantee electoral victory in 2019.

Modi needs to deliver on two crucial fronts: farmers and soldiers. Both groups will play dominant part in electoral outcomes in the “Cow Belt” region – U.P., Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Bihar and Gujarat.

Farmers issues are very well identified particularly “Minimum Support Price (MSP)” bar guaranteeing minimum returns over investments or profit and compensation in case of floods and drought.

Just like those white collar job holders enjoying running scale DA increases and pay commissions, it is fair to extend similar facilities to the farmers. Immediate announcement of a high powered “Farmers Commission” to determine MSP on annual basis besides automatic compensation in case of floods, droughts etc., and their time bound enactments is an imperative. Even extension of loans and advances should be on par with the rates authorized for the white collar workers working in AC chambers.

And, the next stage or phase of agricultural revolution is yet to see the light of the day despite MPs/MLAs/civilian official delegations visiting nations like Spain, Israel, Netherlands and others. “Green House Technology” cultivation is quite insignificant when compared to the nations mentioned above. For example, the tiny nation like Netherlands is an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like. Each acre in the greenhouse yields as much lettuce as 10 outdoor acres and cuts the need for chemicals by 97 percent.

In Spain, it’s an endless sprawl of greenhouses near Almera–100,000 acres the biggest in the world– produces over $.1.5 billion each year in one location employing thousands of labor. Surely, clusters can be easily developed not only in Gujarat but also in all other States particularly in rainfall deficit regions.

Similarly, the pending demands of soldiers and veterans of all security forces must be met without further delay. Most important is the 70-year old pending demand of a “WAR MEMORIAL” in Delhi.

Such a “WAR MEMORIAL” should represent all the wars fought since 1947 in one complex: 1947-48 war; 1962 War; 1965 War; 1971 War; Kargil Conflict and the counter insurgency crises. The vast circle between the India Gate and the National Sports Stadium in New Delhi must be used to establish the WAR MEMORIAL with each platform replicating the victorious battlefield scenarios with the names of those martyred and gallantry awardees inscribed that would serve as a “Key Tourist” attraction and highly inspirational for future generations.

Also, the demand of the “Veterans” to bring the “pension revision” on yearly basis on par with the IAS, IPS and other civilian bureaucracy must be met expeditiously without further procrastination. No need to keep them pending for a later date; but better to announce favorable measures to pre-empt “Veterans” getting further politicized.

Following my tour of “Memorials” glorifying those leaders that contributed to the making of America, in retrospect, I wonder why India (claiming 5000 years of civilization heritage) has not found it a vital imperative to build Memorials of Chandragupta Maurya, Chanakya, Ashoka, Rani of Jhansi Laxmibai, Bhagat Singh etc. on either side of Rajpath or in the “Purana Qila” Complex. Never too late than ever!

Of course, the list of emerging challenges is endless. A compiled list will follow in the next article. Suffice to highlight that only a visionary and decisive leader with ‘team building’ capability can do it. It implies that political stability is an imperative. People must prefer such an option instead of hankering after of a quite a few pretenders hell bent upon divide and rule obsession.

As “Spectators or bystanders” one can spin a lot of “stories” and sensationalize situations based on leanings and affiliations – all sound and fury – for free entertainment for viewers and readers endlessly. To make sense out of them to accurately predict outcomes on the course of nation is impossibility.

Viewed in the above framework, the question “What next in Indian Politics?” is not easy to forecast. Like each sportsman today highlights that each point in a game or each match in a series has to be fiercely contested to win, even the final outcomes of each round of elections in Indian democracy depends on highly complex situational variables and leadership capabilities.