BJP set to oust Left from Tripura, win majority in Nagaland & Meghalaya: Exit Polls

Victory in these three states will take BJP a step closer to its dream of #Congress-mukt Bharat. But more inspiring will be to snatch the power from the Communists in Tripura and oust them from the state after a 25-year uninterrupted rule.

Elections to all these three states having strength of 60 each were held on Feb 18 (Tripura) and Feb 25 (Nagaland and Meghalaya) witnessing a voter turnout between 90 to 75 percent.

The Congress has already been out of power from Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur after the elections held after the 2014 general elections, Meghalaya and Mizoram were the only states under the Congress rule. Now the two exit polls predicted the bad news for the Congress party. The BJP and its allies may win the required majority to oust the Congress party from the ‘Abode of Clouds’ as Meghalaya literary means.

Most exit polls have predicted victory for the BJP and rout for the Congress and the Communists. The BJP will ride to power in these states with the help their regional allies, they said.

Tripura is the most interesting case and it has attracted the attention of the political pundits and pollsters across the country as the BJP attained a phoenix like rise in that Left bastion. The task was not easy to challenge the 25-year rule of the CPM headed by a chief minister whose image as a simple, poor man is deeply entrenched in the public mind. But the party achieved this by breaking into the Left citadel and posed a tough challenge to the Manik Sarkar government.

 

The AxisMyIndia Poll gave BJP a thumping majority of 45-50 out of 60 seats while the CPM is likely to get 9-10 seats. The victory of BJP in Tripura where the party could muster 5.70% votes in Lok Sabha and 1.5% in the Vidhan Sabha, will definitely prove to be massive confidence booster.

JanKiBaat-NewsX has predicted that the BJP-IPFT alliance in Tripura will win 35-45 seats with a vote share of 51 per cent. According to JanKiBaat-NewsX, the ruling Left front is likely to get 14-23 seats with vote share of 45-46 per cent.

The CVoter exit poll predicts a close finish in Tripura, with the CPM likely to get 26 to 34 seats (44.3 per cent vote share) and the BJP and its allies winning 24 to 32 seats (42.8 per cent vote share). The Congress may win only 0-2 seats with a vote share of 7.2 per cent, predicts CVoter.

Ram Madhav, BJP’s North-East incharge called this election as ‘Battle Royale” and accepted that it was a toughest challenge for the party.

Tripura was a bipolar contest between BJP and the Left. The seriousness with which Madhav and his party canvassed the state and wooed the voters is clear from the senior leaders who held multiple rallies in the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, along with Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath, held multiple meetings and rallies in the run up to elections in Tripura.

The CPI (M), on the other hand, depended mainly on the Chief Minister Manik Sarkar and senior leaders such as Sitaram Yechury, Prakash Karat and Brinda Karat. In the assembly that they were almost certain to not win, Congress made only a half-hearted campaign pitch with a last day rally of party president Rahul Gandhi.

Nagaland: In Nagaland, the BJP-NDPP alliance is likely to storm the ruling NPF bastion as it is predicted to win 27-32 seats with a vote share of 48 per cent, against NPF's 20-25 seats and a vote share of 42 per cent, according to the JanKiBaat-NewsX exit poll.

 

In Nagaland, the exit poll claimed a victory for the NDPP-BJP which is likely to get 25-31 seats with 38.4 per cent vote share and the NPF likely to bag 19-25 seats with a vote share of 27.1 per cent.

The Congress in Nagaland is set to lose a lot with the poll predicting 0-4 seats with a vote share of 19.7 per cent, while others may get 6-10 seats with a vote share of 14.8 per cent, according to CVoter.

In this state dominated by followers of Christianity, BJP had interestingly offered an all-expense paid trip for 50 senior citizens, chosen by drawing lots, to Jerusalem annually. This is the state which has often seen demand for greater Nagalim become a poll issue.

From BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spearheaded the party’s poll campaign in this state. Other senior leaders like party president Amit Shah, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Information and Broadcasting Minister Smriti Irani held several rallies. BJP’s MoS for Tourism KJ Alphons, a Christian from Kerala, stayed put in Meghalaya as the BJP in-charge of the state.

Meghalaya: In Meghalaya, the JanKiBaat-NewsX polls have given BJP between 8 to 12 seats, Congress between 13-17 seats and NPP between 23-27 seats.

 On the face of it, this looks to be the only state where Congress may end up winning more seats than BJP, but then it doesn’t seem much of an achievement for Congress, given the fact that they were in power here for over the last 10 years and the fact that BJP did not even open its account the last time assembly elections were held here – in 2013.

Going from zero to anywhere between 8 to 12 seats will be a welcome beginning for the BJP in the state, and for the Congress which won 29 seats in 2013, being reduced to under 20 will be a serious cause of concern. NPP’s Conrad Kongkal Sangma will be the man of the moment in the state, the exit poll has suggested. Although his party did not get into a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, the two are understood to have entered into an understanding with each other and are most likely to form the government in Meghalaya.

The three states, whose assembly poll results will be announced on March 3, are crucial in view of the general polls scheduled next year. With a combined strength of 25 Lok Sabha seats and 14 Rajya Sabha berths, these states will give a huge advantage to the national party, either BJP or Congress, whichever fares better.