Showering drops of bliss and contentment; brace yourself for the rains knocking doors of Kerala from May 29
New Delhi, May 19: Thrusting aside the scorching heat hovering parts of India, the southern monsoon is all set to knock the doors of showering the rain of bliss and contentment on May 29. The southwest monsoon is set to arrive three days ahead of schedule in Kerala this year, the weather office said on Friday. The normal date for the onset of southwest monsoon in Kerala is June 1.
KJ Ramesh, director general of India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed that if monsoon arrives before May 27, only then would it be considered an early onset, the likelihood of which is very less. "Kerala is getting good pre-monsoon activity this year, which is a good thing.”
The onset marks the start of the June-to-September rainy season during which the moisture-bearing monsoon winds from over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal progress northward, adding humidity but bringing relief from the scorching summer heat.
The IMD generates its onset date prediction through a homegrown statistical model that relies on six atmospheric and weather parameters to forecast the date. The forecast, which has a model error of four days, has been correct every year since 2005, except during 2015.
In its preliminary long-range forecast for the 2018 monsoon issued last month, the IMD had predicted that the overall rainfall during the four-month season would be normal, 97% of the average.
The south-west monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea usually around 20 May, with a standard deviation of about a week. The department highlighted that conditions are likely to become favorable for the advance of the monsoon into some parts of the Andaman Sea and the south-east Bay of Bengal by 23 May.
However, officials emphasized that past data has indicated there was no significant association of the arrival of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea either with the onset of the monsoon over the mainland or with the overall monsoon rainfall over the country.