Gandhinagar, December 7: Though it is premature to comment on the results of the Gujarat and actual numbers, the things are getting clear as the Poll dates comes nearer. The Masks are being unmasked, the faces are going in hiding, the facts are being revealed and the populace of Gujarat is entering into a phase where they are consolidating on who to vote and why.
Predicting that the “BJP set for its biggest ever win in Gujarat” Dayanand Nene of the Alert Citizens forum comments that : “The predicted vote share for BJP and Congress in Gujarat is 52.3% and 31.4% respectively which translates into 130 seats for the BJP and 47 seats for the Congress”, and expects that the BJP is poised to surpass its best ever tally of 127 seats in 2002 and win the election by a major landslide.
Hardik Alpesh Jignesh - The HAJ trio
The Survey out rightly rejects the Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani on whom the The Congress is relying mainly. In Gujarat, the troika is currently being termed as the HAJ trio – a perfect footnote for the colloquial name the Congress is addressed as Mussalmano ki party.
The Media made and Congress sponsored tro are instigating casteism in Gujarat voters. Their mathematics is simple. If you can’t increase your vote share it does not matter, bring down the voteshare of BJP to grab power.
Nene states that Hardik Patel formed Paatidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and instigated Patidar Patel community to fight for reservation. The Patels constitute 15 % ( 8% Leuva and 6% Kadva Patidars) of voters in Gujarat. This is one of the votebanks of BJP in Gujarat. Hardik Patel’s supporters are the Leuva Patels who were the staunch supporters of the erstwhile Gujarat Parivartan Party of ex-cm Keshubhai Patel. The GPP had mustered only 3.6 % of votes and 2 seats in 2012 elections. Supposing that the same percentage of Patidars vote against BJP, it will not have a deciding effect on the results.
Alpesh Thakor is the leader from the Thakor community – an OBC (Other backward class.) OBCs form 40% of the voters in Gujarat and are staunch supporters of Modi. However Thakor community is a staunch supporter of Congress party and Shankersinh Vaghela has a tremendous influence over them. They form 22% of OBC voters.
Jignesh Mevani is the Young dalit leader supported by Congress. This will make no difference for Congress and BJP as all the Dalits who form 7 or 8 % of voters always vote for Congress and they are votebank of Congress. They never vote for BJP or a very small percentage of educated dalit votes for BJP.
Congress strategy – Rahul Gandhi- a gloomy failure
The Congress, led by its Vice President Rahul Gandhi has tried its best to turn this election into a battle of castes. ACF survey finds that Rahul Gandhi is putting in his best effort to level all kinds of allegations, asking completely illogical questions, thus questioning the basic intelligence of the Gujarati voter. He has promised to waive all loans within 10 days of coming to power. Frustrated by the fact that his mudslinging and allegations are not sticking, RaGa has adopted a new strategy of wooing voters – he has started visiting temples and is seeking the blessings of every Hindu God, comments ACF.
Dayanand Nene states that Rahul has slipped badly in the last lap. His claims of being a “Janeudhari” (One who wears Sacred Thread) Brahmin and a devout “Shiv Bhakt” have not only made him a laughing stock, as nobody believes him, but brought the entire campaign back to where the BJP wanted it – the Hindutva agenda.
The media hype of Congress is more a figment of imagination than real. As the election approaches near, Modi’s stock is increasing and Rahul relegating to the background. The picture is getting clear and BJP is expected to win with a huge margin.
Here is the full text of the final pre-poll survey of Gujarat elections by the alert Citizens Forum of India-