Source: News Bharati English13 Mar 2017 07:42:13

Since the afternoon of 11th March 2017 i.e. from the time results of UP assembly elections 2017, were announced; there is a message going around in social media for BJP’s victory in Deoband. It says “In 80% Muslim populated constituency BJP won” in other words, it conveys that Muslims voted for BJP.

But the mystery of BJP winning Deoband is different.

It is simple, there is no mystery.

This was the 17th Assembly Election of UP since 1952 and till date only twice Muslim candidates have won assembly election from Deoband, once in 1977 and again in the 2016 by-poll elections, otherwise it is Hindus who have been winning from Deoband. (Table-1)

Hence be very clear that there is no miracle in BJP winning from Deoband.   

Table-1

TABLE-1

Term

Name

Party

From

01 Vidhan Sabha

Thakur Phool Singh

Congress

19115

02nd Vidhan Sabha

Thakur Yashpal Singh

Independent

20911

03rd Vidhan Sabha

Thakur Phool Singh

Congress

22706

04th Vidhan Sabha

P. Singh

Congress

24532

05th Vidhan Sabha

Mahabir Singh Rana

Congress

25235

06th Vidhan Sabha

Mahabir Singh Rana

Congress

27089

07th Vidhan Sabha

Mohammad Usman

Janata Party

28277

08th Vidhan Sabha

Mahabir Singh Rana

Congress

29373

09th Vidhan Sabha

Mahabir Singh Rana

Congress

31107

10th Vidhan Sabha

Mahabir Singh Rana

Congress

32843

11th Vidhan Sabha

Virender Singh

Janata Dal

33390

12th Vidhan Sabha

Shasi Bala Pundir

Bharatiya Janata Party

34304

13th Vidhan Sabha

Sukhbeer Singh Pundir

Bharatiya Janata Party

35339

14th Vidhan Sabha

Rajendra Singh Rana

Bahujan Samaj Party

37288

15th Vidhan Sabha

Manoj Chaudhary

Bahujan Samaj Party

39203

16th Vidhan Sabha

Rajendra Singh Rana

Samajwadi Party

40969

 

Maviya Ali

Indian National Congress

42401

17 Vidhan Shabha

Brijesh

Bharatiya Janta Party

42795

Deoband is about 150 km from Delhi, where the Deobandi Islamic movement originated in 1866. It remained Muslim majority even after partition and since Hindus have remained in minority here they understand the importance of unity and voting in a bloc.

Now let’s look at 2017 Assemble Election.

Following is a quote from an article from The Hindu “Because of the renewed support for the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance among the over 1.15 lakh Muslim voters, Maviya Ali will get the lion's share of Muslim votes because of a pro-Akhilesh wave among Muslims. The BSP’s Majid Ali may end up eating into the minority votes and take a quarter of the Muslim votes, but that would not affect Mr. Ali’s prospects.” (http://www.thehindu.com/elections/uttar-pradesh-2017/Shooting-the-breeze-in-Deoband/article17298369.ece)

The article further quotes “The BJP is sure of getting the traditional votes of Thakurs, with a population of over 40,000, a section of the 28,000 Gujjar votes, and those of other non-Yadav backward castes such as Kashyaps and Sainis.”

At the first glance, it is clear that there are more Muslim voters then Hindus in Deoband. There were 8 candidates in fray out of that 4 were Muslims and 4 were Hindus. (Table-2). The winner Brijesh of BJP polled 1,02,244 votes. Other 3 Hindu candidates polled 2381 votes only. While 2 Muslim candidates polled 654 votes, together and other two polled 72844 votes (BSP) and 55385 votes (SP).

So total Muslim vote was 128883 and total Hindu vote was 104625 (similar number mentioned in The Hindu). BJP won in Deoband because Hindu voted in block for BJP while Muslim vote was split between SP and BSP, and not because Muslims voted for BJP.
The combined vote count of Muslim candidates of BSP and SP was 128229, while the BJP candidate and the winner polled only 102244 votes i.e. 25,985 votes less.

Table- 2

TABLE-2

CANDIDATE

PARTY

VOTES POLLED

Brijesh

BJP

102244

Bhupeshwar Tyagi

RLD

1132

Majid Ali

BSP

72844

Mavia Ali

SP

55385

Dharmavir

BMP

651

Rakesh Verma

BTSP

598

Umar Nawaz

IND

415

Zahir Fatma

IND

239

Nota

NOTA

798

This constituency has two other interesting aspects. Zaheer Fatima contesting as an independent is the wife of Mavia Ali, the sitting MLA of Deoband from Congress, who was now contesting on a Samajwadi Party ticket. 

If Muslims would have voted for BJP, then BJP would not have lost Kairana. Kairana has similar population distribution as Deoband. And like Deoband, Hindu candidate has been winning the assembly seats since 1950 except on 4 occasions till 2014.

Table-3 

TABLE-3

Term

Name

Party

From

01st Vidhan Sabha

-

-

19115

02nd Vidhan Sabha

Virendra Verma

Indian National Congress

20911

03rd Vidhan Sabha

Chandan Singh

Independent

22706

04th Vidhan Sabha

S. Jang

Indian National Congress

24532

05th Vidhan Sabha

Chandra Bhan

Bharatiya Kranti Dal

25235

06th Vidhan Sabha

Hukam Singh

Indian National Congress

27089

07th Vidhan Sabha

Bashir Ahmad

Janata Party

28277

08th Vidhan Sabha

Hukam Singh

Janata Party (Secular)

29373

09th Vidhan Sabha

Hukam Singh

Indian National Congress

31107

10th Vidhan Sabha

Rajeshwar Bansal

Independent

32843

11th Vidhan Sabha

Manawar Hasan

Janata Dal

33390

12th Vidhan Sabha

Manawar Hasan

Janata Dal

34304

13th Vidhan Sabha

Hukum Singh

Bharatiya Janata Party

35339

14th Vidhan Sabha

Hukum Singh

Bharatiya Janata Party

37288

15th Vidhan Sabha

Hukum Singh

Bharatiya Janata Party

39203

16th Vidhan Sabha

Hukum Singh

Bharatiya Janata Party

40969

16th Vidhan Sabha

Nahid Hasan

Samajwadi Party

41913

17th Vidhan Sabha

Nahid Hasan

Samajwadi Party

42795

SP’s Nahid Hasan, in 2016 by polls had polled 83,984 votes and defeated BJP’s Anil Singh Chauhan by a margin of 1,099 votes only. Nahid’s uncle Arshad Hasan, who contested as Congress’ candidate had finished third by polling 16,906 votes.

And again in 2017, Nahid Hasan won by polling 98830 votes. The BJP candidate polled 77,668 votes. There were 11 candidates in the fray, 3 Muslim and 8 Hindus. 3 Muslim candidates polled 1,01,322 votes and 8 Hindus polled 1,06,752. BJP lost Kairna by the split of Hindu votes and consolidation of Muslim votes. (Table-4)

TABLE -4

Kairana

Candidate

Party

Votes Polled

NAHID HASAN

Samajwadi Party

98830

MRIGANKA SINGH

Bharatiya Janata Party

77668

ANIL KUMAR

Rashtriya Lok Dal

19992

DIWAKAR DESHWAL

Bahujan Samaj Party

6888

MASEEHULLA

All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen

1365

SARFARAJ KHAN

Lok Dal

1127

SETHPAL

Independent

623

DHARMVEER

Independent

545

VINOD KUMAR

Independent

496

SAHENDRA PAL

Bhartiya Vanchitsamaj Party

290

SANDEEP

Bahujan Mukti Party

250

None of the Above

None of the Above

1060

If Muslims would have voted for BJP, BJP wouldn’t have lost Kairana. A myth is being circulated on social media taking Deoband win of BJP as an example of Muslims voting for BJP. This is being done to discredit the consolidations of Hindu voters. One needs to be careful while forwarding messages on social media. After a long time Hindus have voted as one unit and this must be respected by every Hindu and BJP and effort should be made for further consolidation.

 

 

 

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