New Delhi, April 19: In good news for farmers who mainly depend on the monsoon, the country is likely to receive normal monsoon rainfall this year. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) classification, the monsoon is considered normal is rains are between 96-104 percent of the 50-year average rainfall of 89 cms. The monsoon is taken to be below normal if rains are between 90– 96 percent. If less than 90, it is considered deficient.
Briefing media on Southwest Monsoon season rainfall forecast, Director General of India Meteorological Department, K J Ramesh said, quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall from June to September is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average plus minus five per cent. He said, there would be good distribution of rainfall across the country.
India is in for a normal monsoon season this year. It is good for the agriculture and good for the economy of the country. Prospects of improvement expectation beyond 96 per cent plus minus 5, that probability far improvement towards near normal condition is 38 per cent at the moment.
Ramesh said that for the first time monsoon forecast has been done using dynamical model. He informed that second stage of monsoon forecast will be issued in the first week of June.
Since 2000, there were five years when the monsoon was 10 percent below the long-term average. Two of the biggest falls were in 2009 with rains falling short by 21.8 percent, followed by 2002 when monsoon fell short by 19.2 percent. In 2004, 2012 and 2014 rainfall was short by around 13 percent.
Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast has been issued yesterday and the second stage forecast will be issued in June. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities.
IMD has been using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model, which was developed under the Monsoon Mission. The original coupled ocean-atmospheric model framework of CFS was adopted from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. The CFS model was further modified to provide improved rainfall forecasts over the Indian monsoon region through research efforts taken up under the Monsoon Mission.