New Delhi, June 1: The just out results of the various by-elections held in different parts of the country are looked into as a danger signal for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party that boasts of capturing more than 300 seats in the coming 2019 general elections, is not able to retain its seats against the united opposition parties; at least the outcome of these elections show this reality.
The social media, the main stream media (MSM) and other secular and progressive journalists and political leaders are rejoicing over the defeat of the BJP. They are now confident that by coming together they can pose a formidable challenge to the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah.
They all point to the by-poll result of Kairana in Uttar Pradesh that gave 73 seats to BJP out of 80 in 2014 and is expected to repeat the performance in 2019. In Kairana, the BJP despite putting its entire mite could not retain the seat. It lost to the RLD candidate, a Muslim lady who will be the sole representative of Muslims in the Lok Sabha.
This show of opposition unity – the RLD, SP, BSP and Congress – is the real challenge to the BJP, according to some political observers. The BJP had won the seat on consolidation of Hindutva in 2014. But the conglomerate of these parties seem to have dented into that consolidated form and succeeded in strengthening the caste equations again. The anti-BJP forces, especially the Christian missionaries are instigating the tribals against the BJP in their areas and no media is ready to discuss and expose these anti-national forces.
The by-elections were held for four Lok Sabha and ten Vidhan Sabha constituencies across the country and the BJP could retain only the Palghar seat in Maharashtra and its ally NNDP has won the Lok Sabha seat in Nagaland. The results also showed the decline in the vote share of the party as compared to 2014 besides injecting a renewed confidence in the opposition camp that united they can defeat the BJP and Modi.
According to the latest CDS survey, there has been a decline of seven percent in the BJP’s vote share mostly in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, considered to be strongholds of the BJP. And Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh along with Chhattisgarh will be going to polls in the end of this year.
The decline is more visible in farmers, Dalits and tribal communities. There has been a decline of 12 percent among the farmer votes while, Congress has caught up with the BJP in Dalit and Tribal voters segment in the recent years.
In these by-elections the BJP received a big jolt in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra indicating that the 2019 would not be an easy task for the BJP. In 2014, the BJP had bagged 158 seats out of 182 from these four states but will it repeat the performance in 2019? Observers feel that the result of Kairana by-election that was watched as an indicator of 2019 showed that the way ahead in 2019 would be difficult for the BJP.
Kairana results also indicate that the Hindutva fold that brought all the sections of the Hindu society together and consolidated them has now become weak and broken by the caste supremacies and affiliations. The reasons will have to be searched outside and inside both. Bhim Army also came out and appealed to vote for the RLD candidate.
The BJP was relegated to the third position in Jharkhand’s Gomia seat mainly because it could not get the votes of the tribal people. There are many forces working in the tribal belt inciting the tribals against the BJP, Hindutva etc. But surprisingly, no discussion or debates are held to expose them.
This is time for BJP to get alert if it were to win the 2019 elections with a greater majority to continue its agenda of ‘Sab ka Saath- Sab ka Vikas’ and take India to new heights of progress and development.