Analogy of India’s National Security Strategy
If India wants to increase her influence in South East Asia vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, she has to rekindle relationships and build influence in the region. This is possible only if we have a sound and progressive National Security Policy which is missing for last seven decades. Since independence, we have been working on/following the concept of National Will instead of National Security. It is the will of Political Party ruling the Nation at that particular time. This is evident in all the wars India has fought, negotiations in aftermath of these wars and our efforts to deal with insurgency from time to time. We have, yet not understood that National Security comprises of Security of Borders as well as Internal Security.
Formulation of National Security Policy will result in return of Indian influence in this region and subsequently in the world. In turn, such influence will put pressure on Chinese interests in this region. Pakistan is not in this race. In prevailing complex security environment which are defined by Trans Regional and Multi Functional Challenges, we are constrained by Available Meager Resources and National Desire to supplement those resources by allotment of funds to Defence Force modernization. The Government, Political Parties and Public must make difficult choices and prioritize efforts for National Security. In our country, there is always an ongoing battle between allotment for welfare and expenditure on Defence Forces, in which Defence is always a loser.
While analyzing National or Military Strategy, Defence Experts follow Component Concept of an Equation, which equally applies to Formulation of National/Military Strategy and can be summarized as; Strategy equals Ends (Objectives to be achieved) plus ways (Courses of Action) plus Means (Instruments by which end can be achieved).
In Defence terminology; Ends are Military Objectives. Ways are Courses of Action designed to achieve that Military Objective and Means are Military Resources comprising of Manpower, Materiel, Money, Forces, Logistics required to accomplish the Mission. This in total is termed as Military Strategic Concepts.
National strategy is ably supported by Military Strategy which has three balanced components of Military Objectives, Concepts, and Resources. There is always a trouble when Military Resources are not compatible with Strategic Concepts, or Commitments are not matched by Military Capabilities. This angle of tilt or difference between the two represents Risk which entails possibility of loss or damage or of not achieving an objective.
In today’s environment, we must develop an Aggressive Form of National Security Strategy. This must include use of “Hybrid Warfare” which Pakistan professes in Kashmir and China while supporting Urban/Rural Naxals. Our Government, Judiciary, Intellectual Community or Political Parties, must support all actions by our Security Forces and never classify its actions against Jehadi Terrorists or Naxal as an Armed Conflict in its legal and political form.
On the contrary, they must, unanimously, support Security Forces who strive hard to impose National Will on these adversaries of Nation as Instrument of National Power. Role of Israeli Opposition in recent Israel Palestinian Conflict amply demonstrates this aspect which our political parties and public in general must adopt.
India has to/must evolve her National Security Strategy by combining the concepts of “Asymmetric Approach” and “Strategic Deterrence” to enable an aggressive concept of National Defence that aims to “Create Favorable Conditions” on our Borders and hinterland. We must utilize forces striving for independence in Baluchistan and “Jie Sindh Organization” in Sindh against Pakistan and also. Uyghur Muslims in Xingjiang, freedom fighters in Tibet and oppressed elements in Mongolia/Taiwan/Hongkong against China.
We must rely on opportunities created by Other Actors in both these countries, rather than creating our “Own Openings”. We have to encourage Resource Investments by these actors to underwrite our activities. To achieve this end; our Foreign Policy must become/turn Transactional and Non Ideological which will allow us to engage with all these actors, even if they have directly competing Agendas. This would help us to achieve our National Ends using only Modest Means and Resources.
For this we have to rely on Targeted Diplomatic, Economic, and Limited Military Activates/Interventions to exploit opportunities and accrue influence. In recent past, we have started increasing our influence in South East Asia from Military Sales. India has to strive hard to increase stability and prevent power vacuum in the region so that China cannot exploit it without using much more resources than us to meet its Regional Ends. Our aim should be to ensure that Kashmir and any part of India is not a safe haven or breeding ground for Jihadi Terrorists or Urban/Rural Naxals. No part of our great Nation should be dominated by any power hostile to us in any form.
Protecting Indian People and homeland and preserving peace through strength includes defeating Terrorist Jehadi/Naxal Organizations and Forces inimical to our National Security. To achieve this we must; strengthen Country’s Defence, Ensure Political and Social Stability, Raise Living Standard, Preserve and Develop Culture, Improve Economy and strengthen our Status as a leading Regional and subsequently World Power.
We have to maintain Regime Stability and counter Extremist Terrorism. For that, we should not shy away from Extremism of Actions to be taken in our National Interest. As Jehadi/Naxal Terrorism progressed in country; organizations supporting them grew stronger, threatening to fortify Violent Extremist Organizations across India.
Simultaneously, Chinese and Pakistani activities from across the border took an ugly turn. To counter this; apart from Military actions; now we have employed our Diplomatic and Economic Instrument to enhance relationships with many other nations in South East Asia and Middle East. In last few years, India has made inroads with nations such Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Male, Maldives, Vietnam, Cambodia, Saudi Arab, United Arab Emirate; to name a few. We are also interested in boosting trade across the spectrum, to include tourism, agriculture, and industry, positioning us as an attractive option for foreign investors.
Both China and Pakistan are facing asymmetric threats from internal Terrorist Organizations and are seeking effective solutions. However, China is using her Diplomatic Tools to capitalize on opportunities and power vacuums by her Military Resources, engaged leader to leader contacts and appealed to nationalist leanings of these for implied support. Xi jin ping has promoted the idea that China will help them Militarily as well Economically. China has acclimated large portion of its Forces to expeditionary combat in Indian Ladakh.
This was a cost effective training alternative to shipping manpower and equipment across China for large-scale exercises. Economically, China has expended few resources in making state to state business deals, and in some cases has traded monetary support for political support. In all, China has so far been able pursue her interests while leveraging relatively modest means. But, Pakistan or China has no counterpart to offer for medium-range, surface to air and air to air Brahmos Missiles being traded by India to these countries. There we have ascendency.
Concept of Risk is the amount of imbalance between Ends, Ways, and Means of Strategy being employed for attainment of National Security. The element of Risk which India will/is going to take against China or Pakistan will provide them an opportunity to counter India’s National Security Plans. National Security is a long term liability wherein we will have to invest in manufacture/purchase of Arms to counter their threat as well as afford the cost of construction of Infrastructure in Border Areas and hinterland. This Concept of Risk will be equally applicable to China and Pakistan who plan/want to attack/invade India. Our Element of Risk will be directly proportional and reciprocal to amount of Risk they are going to take while attacking us.
Strategically Weak Areas in China and Pakistan, of which India can take advantage of, are brought out above. These areas present opportunities for India and bring Risk, detrimental to interests of China and Pakistan. There are areas for potential cooperation between India and other countries opposed to China. Toward this end, India will have to play an active role in South East Asia and Middle East.
It would provide opportunities to us to gain Economic and Political Influence with specific countries, enable us to become a stronger regional power, and could open the door to our Military Sales furthering newly formed alliance. Our age old policy of Non Alignment is not going to stand test of time. Likewise, present proclaimed policy of being a “Friend to All but Ally to None” is a double edged sword.
All Nation states act in their own best interests, so must we. This interest basically relies on Long term Planning. Stability and Predictability of other Actors is the mainstay of this planning process. To garner its advantage, our Intelligence Apparatus has to be strong and sound for Early Warning..
Indian Security Apparatus requires real time warning of impending enemy intentions/ operations on its Northern and Eastern Borders as well hinterland. This Type of warning envisions a system for keeping Commanders abreast of complex and dynamic battlefields of future warfare. For this, India will have to carry out required Predictive Analysis as it would provide/give a comprehensive operating picture which would help Commander to know where he should be looking for the next hotspots critical for the National Approach to Security. Defence Forces will have to pull up data from a variety of sources, push it up the chain of command, and then disseminate their orders. In the years ahead, the Air Force, working with the Army, Navy, Coast Guard, and Space Force must form up a model for Networked Warfare: a massive web connecting every satellite, sensor, ship, jet, drone, and gun on the battlefield. In future wars, Commanders, guided by Artificial Intelligence, will have to rapidly swap in one weapon or tool for another in the middle of war, presenting enemies a series of “Multiple Dilemmas.” If every weapon on the field can be perfectly controlled simultaneously by Indian Commanders, then Chinese or Pakistani Commander will not be able to prioritize his offensive or defensive measures as they will not know which planes, guns, ships, to target first.
Achieving superiority against an Adversary is all about making decisions faster than them. A way to make decisions is by getting the most accurate and aggregated data to Decision Maker as quickly as possible so that he/they know what is going on and then make a decision. And this is the crux of National Security.