New Pak COAS on Line of No Control

Lieutenant General Sayed Asim Munir, the new Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS), took charge on Tuesday, 29^th November 2022. It was uncertain as to who will take over the reins as there were six candidates in the fray. We, in India, were anxious to know the name of the new COAS as his nature and stance are of concern to us in the Army. Compared to the Indian System, one wonders how difficult a simple-looking issue can become in Pakistan.

After days of speculation, anticipation, and apprehension that the appointment to the top post of the Army could face delays or be shelved/thwarted, on 24 November 2022, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif picked Lieutenant General Sayed Asim Munir who was Inter-Service Intelligence Organisation (ISI) Chief in 2019 during the Pulwama Suicide Terror Strike, to succeed outgoing Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. The selection, which caps weeks of speculation, was confirmed after President Arif Alvi signed a summary sent by Prime Minister. It is interesting to analyze how and why Munir became the ‘Man Friday’ of Pakistan.

Lt Gen Sayed Asim Munir who topped the list of Six Army Almighty in Pakistan was a controversial Infantryman. He is not a graduate of the Pakistan Military Academy, Alma Mater of the Pak Army. He is a "Sword of Honour '' from one of the Army's Feeder Schools with a Military Intelligence background. He is also known for his ability to recite virtually all of the Quran and has served in Saudi Arabia. He was in the Black Book of Miyan Imran Khan who fired him when Munir headed ISI. He was picked up as COAS even though he is set to retire two days before current COAS, General Qamar Bajwa. Therefore, retaining his services required some bureaucratic maneuvering and/or an amendment to Army Act.

Imran Khan will certainly cast this as ‘political trickery’ by the Ruling Party. Many Defence Analysts in Pakistan consider him a "Straight Shooter, but in the opinion of others, his nomination would further polarize fragile Pakistan Politics. Those who shun Pak Military are of the opinion that candidates experienced in the "Dark Arts of Intelligence Services" should have avoided this Top Job. Munir was Chief of both, the internally focused Military Intelligence (MI) Directorate, as well as an elder brother, ISI.

Second in seniority was Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza, considered a “Tactical Genius” throughout the Army, and was “Chief of Military Operation” (MO). Apart from being Director of MO, Mirza has commanded X Corps, the largest formation in Pakistan comprising 250,000 Soldiers. He has also served in/headed many UN Peacekeeping Missions. He enjoys the support of the rank and file. He was appointed as Chairman, of the Joint Chief of Staff Committee on the same day and assumed charge on 27 November 2022.

The third in line, Lt Gen Azhar Abbas was Commandant of the prestigious Pakistan Military Infantry School. He has commanded a Division (20,000 Soldiers) and the Corps (60,000 Soldiers) which is responsible for tracking and tackling India in the disputed region of Kashmir. He has held the same vaunted Staff and Command Appointments as Mirza. He was the architect for the implementation of a Ceasefire with India after Nuclear Armed Rivals came close to an All Out War in 2019. This was in line with the 2003 Ceasefire Agreement between these two rivals.

His added advantage was, he also hails from the same regiment as Bajwa and was the Principal Staff Officer and right-hand man of previous COAS and patron of Bajwa, Gen Raheel Sharif, He is presently commanding 41 Nation Islamic Military Counterterrorism Coalition, Saudi Arabia's Islamic version of NATO. His disadvantage was he is a Shia Muslim in Sunni dominated Military and Country.

Fourth, fifth and sixth candidates by seniority were, Lt Gens Nauman Mehmood, Faiz Hameed, and Mohammed Aamer. Low profile Mehmood spent most of his command in Pakistan Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan during the height of the bloody insurgency, led ISI Analysis Wing and Army Staff College, and now heads National Defense University. Hameed, a former ISI Chief, was shuffled out of his Command of Afghanistan facing the Corps as relations with the Taliban deteriorated. It is alleged that he manipulated election results in 2018 to install Imran Khan as Prime Minister when he was ISI Chief. Aamer is considered an Administrative Buff.

Imran Khan had been trying to influence the process of election/naming of the new COAS. As per him, Prime Minister Sharif did not enjoy a majority in Parliament and thus had no Political Legitimacy to choose the New Chief. Imran had suggested that the President should dissolve Pak Parliament, order Fresh Elections, allow Gen Qamar Bajwa to stay and supervise/oversee fresh elections, and then let the new Government pick the next COAS. But he later backtracked from it and declared that he will accept whatever/any decision Sharif Government makes.

With so many moving parts, predictions as to who will be the new COAS were precarious. Former three Army Chiefs; Gens Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Raheel Sharif, and Qamar Bajwa; besides being Infantry Officers, graduated from senior Staff Courses at American and British Military War Colleges. Proximity to Washington and London was, and still is, an important part of the Pakistan Army's Military Diplomacy and its Colonial Mindset/Legacy. But surprisingly; not one of the top three had those credentials. However; Munir and Abbas have had close contact with the Saudis, a long-time patron of the Pak Army.

The Pakistani constitution vests the power to choose the Army chief with the Prime Minister. But, the Institutional Primacy of the Pak Army dictates that PM’s choice must Adhere to/Reflect Rank Seniority and that this choice must have the concurrence of/be accepted by Senior Army Commanders. This time, the better sense seems to have prevailed as Sharif Government adhered to the Seniority Principle.

Lt Gen Munir is an outstanding officer who was promoted to the rank of a Three Star General on 27^th September 2018, and his four-year tenure ended on 27^th November 2027. Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Nadeem Raza and Chief of Army Staff Gen Bajwa will be doffing their army uniform on 29^th September 2027, two days after Munir retires. Lots of technical hitches were involved to appoint him as COAS. Therefore, he was the proverbial Dark Horse in the race.

Munir entered the Army after completing training in Officers Training School at Mangla. He was commissioned into the Frontier Force Regiment which has been an integral part of the 1971 War, the Siachen conflict, and the Kargil War. He has been a close aide of Gen Bajwa. He excelled as a Brigadier to quell the insurgency in Force Command Northern Areas when the outgoing Army Chief was commanding X Corps. This area is under the jurisdiction of X Corps. Munir was appointed Director General, Military Intelligence in early 2017 and was heading ISI in October 2018. However; his stint as Top Intelligence Officer was the shortest ever, as he was replaced by Lt Gen Faiz Hamid within eight months on the insistence of then PM Imran Khan.

Imran was furious with Munir when he singled out/blamed Imran’s wife Bushara Bibi for corrupt practices. Thereafter, he was posted as Gujranwala Corps Commander, a position he held for two years, before being moved to the General Headquarters. He also is considered to have considerable expertise in dealing with matters related to India following his stints as DGMO during 2015-18 and Chief of General Staff during 2019-21. In 2018; he was conferred with Hilal-i-Imtiaz, which is Pakistan’s Second Highest Civilian Award given to both Civilians and Military Officers for the “Highest degree of service to the State and for services to International Diplomacy”. Asim Munir as COAS is unlikely to please Imran Khan.

Along with the appointment of a new COAS, Two new controversies/trends have emerged in Pakistan. Gen Qamar Bajwa in his farewell address at Gujranwala has termed the 1971 debacle as a Political Failure and not a Military Failure. As per him, the Army had all the potential to win but wrong Political Decisions/Directions led the country to that ignominious calamity. It is a significant, trendsetting, and challenging bold statement by him just a few days before he was to hang his boots.

Surprisingly; Sharif left the country on 25^th November on an official tour of Turkey before this announcement. Bajwa was  "The Most Powerful Man in Pakistan" for six years and he knows the cascading effect of this statement/move made by him. It means; slowly, the seed of doubt seems to be sown in the country for the shameful defeat of 1971, deflecting the blame entirely onto Politicians. This is dangerous, more so, when a person who could effectively counter this allegation, was hanged by the same Army.

As per our Defence Analysts, it shows the growing clout of the Army in politically and economically wrecked Pakistan. This also shows what course the Army would adopt if politicians, in the coming days, start blaming the Army or/and do not follow her dictum. Second is the allegation against the family of the outgoing COAS for amassing huge money in his tenure of six years. There is growing resentment in the Public, against the Army, for financial wrongdoings when the nation is reeling under financial duress.

Munir will have to wade into the Pak Political Crisis almost immediately upon taking charge. He will be navigating complex Political, Internal/External Challenges, clearing Army Image, and most urgently the Economic Crisis engulfing Pakistan. General Elections in Pakistan are likely to be held in the next four to six months and Imran Khan’s PTI is widely expected to win. If it happens, Imran Khan may again be pitted against Gen Munir unless the duo decides to bury the hatchet and move on.

Munir is the first 'Mullah General' to become Army Chief, a development that could have implications for India though it may not be of much consequence. An Army Chief in Pakistan always has a strong bearing on the direction of its ties with countries like China and the United States, as well as its already fragile relationship with immediate neighbor India. Therefore; not much change for the better is expected under the charge of the man during whose watch as ISI Chief, the car bombing in Pulwama took place.

As an old hand on the Kashmir issue with considerable professional Military and Intelligence experience, Munir is likely to continue with the same inflexible Pakistani position of seeking to resolve the Kashmir issue by using terrorism as a tool to pressurize India. Pakistan's Government and Army have used terrorism as their Foreign Policy tool to achieve their ambitions. They rely on Three Falsehoods;( a) Terrorism can help them bleed India and by so doing they can avenge the loss of East Pakistan; (b) They believe that holding what it calls “Non-State Actors” can obscure the worldview from its real role in endangering the region, and (c) Fully knowing that India would retaliate and strike hard at its ‘Factories of Terrorism’, they have not given up their reliance on terrorism in the belief that in future, India would not retaliate the way it did, in response to the devastating Pulwama Terror Attack, Aerial Surgical Strike at Terror Training Camp in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Lt Gen Asim Munir has a tough road ahead. He has to keep China happy. At the same time, he will not like to go on the wrong side of America and most of the West. Then there is Saudi Arab and Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) sitting on his head. He will have to make clever moves to use all of them against India. In addition, he has to deal with the Baloch Insurgency and the safe passage of OPEC. And while doing all this, he has to keep a keen watch on happenings in Pakistan. And to do this, he has to have unlimited power to be used for the betterment of his goal. Anything goes wrong and he will be compelled to take over the reins of the country through a Military Coup. So, India will have to be on her toes in the coming days.