Karnataka Results : Will The Yogi Model Work for Entire India ?Right and Wrong Lessons for BJP and Congress

Karnataka results are out and BJP has been routed in these elections. Suddenly it looks that everything is wrong in BJP and everything is right in Congress. Congress is now prepared to take over the Delhi in 2024 elections. In fact, some of the Congress leaders are saying that since Modi fought Karnataka elections as if he is contesting himself and lost, it is a vote to change the govt in Delhi. It is far from truth. Let us discuss some important lessons.

 

 

 

Modi cannot be a substitute for poor local governance. BJP govt in Karnataka was the worst performer hence lost. However, the most important point to note is that total % of votes remained intact.

 

 

 

 

However, why BJP vote % did not increase even after so much efforts by Modi. Reason is very simple. State level leadership is absolutely poor and Modi compensated for them to ensure that vote % did not go down. No local leader really emerged other than Yeddyurappa who continued to have love and hate relationship with BJP leadership. However, Congress votes % increased by more than 5%, main transfer took place from JDS. Why this vote transfer took place, because Muslims shifted en mass to Congress after ditching JDS to Congress for the purpose of defeating BJP and they succeeded in their effort.

 

Is that possible for BJP to get Muslim votes in the near future. It is a remote possibility even though Muslims have taken the significant benefit of govt schemes as BJP claims to go for Sabka Sath and Sabka Vikash.

 

Muslim consolidated votes for Congress will have a pitfall for Congress in other states as they demand their pound of flesh in Karnataka first and rest of the country later on. Muslim Waqf Board Chairman in Karnataka has asked for Deputy Chief Minister position, five ministers and key ministries like Home for the community as he claims that Muslims helped Congress to win 72 seats in Karnataka. Congress cannot deny this fact .

 

 

 

Now, let us talk of leadership. There are lot of talks of giving the credit to Rahul Gandhi and Gandhi family who hardly played any role. State Congress leadership, Siddaramaiah and DK Shiv Kumar played the main role in Muslim mobilisation for Congress and anti-incumbency factor against BJP govt.

 

Suddenly everybody is talking about Bajrang Dal. Facts remain that it helped BJP but more than that, it helped Congress consolidating on Muslim votes. Freebies helped Congress in a big way. Unfortunately, it has a big role to play and no political party worries about its consequences on economy of the state.

 

 

 

Had it been good governance by BJP and strong state level BJP leadership, there was no scope for Congress but than it is posteriority. BJP has chance to do course correction in other states by developing strong state level leadership.

 

What are the consequences for rest of India which is watching very closely.

 

All the factors which have worked for Congress in Karnataka will not help it in major chunk of northern states. Muslim polarisation will have claimants in Samajwadi and RJD and UP and Bihar elections. While in other states like Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, status quo of Muslim polarisation for Congress will continue. Alliance partner of Congress will be uncomfortable now as Congress looks all set to claim the post of PM for Rahul Gandhi. At national level, Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle will lead to no conclusion for Rahul and everyone knows it. Karnataka win has made opposition unity against Modi a difficult task to achieve.

 

Counter polarisation in favour of BJP alone, will not help BJP . Good governance is a requirement to win. Latest Mayor elections in UP are the prime example where BJP literally decimated the opposition.

 

It is the preview of what will happen in UP in 2024 elections but what about other northern states. Rest assured this story will repeat in all the states with Modi factor working full time when Lok Sabha elections are held.

 

 

The Karnataka elections and the results are the boon for BJP to introspect and take corrective measures. The corrective measures will be sticking to its ideology, adhere to its own core voters, and provide right governance. National issues will not really make impact in the state like Karnataka however same issues will be very important in northern states.

 

Where does BJP land up now with its course correction. Mayor elections in UP are a good example. Yogi just decimated the opposition. Good governance, excellent law and order, and development is the key along with focus on core voters. Yogi model can work in entire India for BJP but where are the implementors of Yogi model in rest of India. Modi has to look for them as he looks forward to win in 2024 elections.