…and Russia is the Winner!

Military Technology and Tactics have to adjust to New Battlefield Realities. American Civil War used the Strategy and Drills of the Napoleonic War. Accuracy of Rifled Small Arms and Cannons changed these in Boer War/World War One with a clear advantage to Defender who was entrenched in Static Fortifications. World War Two ushered in an Era of Blitzkrieg, Mobile Warfare, Encirclements, and Air Interdiction.

After 1945, Nations started to build their Armies under Nuclear Umbrella. Even then; wars fought in Afghanistan by both Russia and America as also wars in Iraq, Vietnam, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, etc are/were in sync with Old Traditions. Everywhere; Russia and America fought those wars with Local/Foreign Insurgents and Irregulars.

In contrast, in Russo Ukraine War, Large Modern States are waging a Full Blown War. The modern and Big Ukrainian Army is Funded and Trained by NATO. Russia is not fighting Armed Insurgencies and Rebels as was in Georgia or Afghanistan. America/NATO have given/are giving every Available Modern Weapon System to Ukraine to fight Russians. Learning Curve in this War is steep, Old Tactics seem to have failed; Armored Spearheads and Encirclements did not work as Defensive Fortifications with Mobile Anti Tank Weapons curtailed the maneuverability of both Infantry and Mobile Columns. This is/was evident in the Battlefields at Mariupol and Bakhmut.

Russia had learned her lesson in World War Two. She was defeated badly by the Germans in Operation Barbarossa in the summer of 1941. But Russia learned her grueling, bloody lessons and put them to use during Counter Attack outside Moscow that defeated Germans on the spot. Thereafter, she arduously seized Strategic Initiative and launched ‘Operation Bagration’ in 1944 destroying the German Army Group Center and ultimately taking Berlin. In four years from 1941-45, Russia developed a New Operational Doctrine of Massive Armored Offensives and increased her Industrial Capacity to Arm and Support her Advancing/Fighting Formations from Logistical Bases to support them in Planes of Europe. But this seems to have failed in this war.

I, as a student of Defence Studies, am of the opinion that Russia is going to be the Ultimate Winner in this War against the combined might of America and NATO. This statement is based on the impartial analysis of; who has worked in which way, who has learned from the past, who is adamant, who is flexible, and who has adapted to changing circumstances; as analysis of all these factors points towards Possible Winner. The analysis is based on my knowledge of Military History, various reports in the Media/Internet, and various Articles about the War. Even the sudden halt/arrival of Pentagon Chief Mr. Lloyd Austin in India on his way to Singapore on 03-04 June 2023 and his discussion with Indian Authorities must be having a significant connection with this war.

After the Gorbachev and Yeltsin era in 1991, Russia suspended its Military Development till early 2000; as India did for almost two and half decades post-1986 Bofors Scandal. Resultantly, Russia lacked prevalent Drone Technology so important for Surveillance and in Combat Situations. America/NATO widely used Predator Drones in Iraq and Afghanistan to target Insurgents. But Russia has used her Drones differently in this Combat. Initially, Russia also used Shaded 136 Drones from Iran to conduct Tactical Strikes. Seeing the outcome, she increased the production and use of her own ZALA Lancet Drone. Now, Shaded Geranium-2 Drones, having a Long Range are used to Target/destroy Ukrainian Infrastructure. Lancets are being used in tandem to attack Tanks, AFVs, Artillery, and Air Defense Systems. Geranium and Lancet Drones cost about $15,000 each against American Reaper Drone supplied to Ukraine costing $32 Million apiece.

Ukraine had inherited S-300 Air Defence System during her separation from the erstwhile USSR. This prevented Russia from using high-cost.

Fighters and Bombers over Ukraine for fear of them getting shot down. Traditional Bombing requires an Aircraft to come above its Target to drop its lethal load, bringing it directly into the killing zone of Air Defence Systems. Glide Bombs were/are the answer Russia had. It is a Conventional Bomb fitted with Wings and upgraded with a Precision Controlled GPS System. It can be released on a Flat Trajectory allowing it to “Glide” toward its target. They are Extremely Accurate. Russia produced these bombs and modified her Sukhoi 34 and 35 Aircraft to enable it to release Glide Bombs outside of the range of Ukranian Air Defence Networks. Thus, the planes now cannot be targeted and the bombs fly in and hit their marks.

Russia is conducting about 20 Strikes a day with Glide Bombs. In comparison to a Lancet Drone carrying a 40 Kg Warhead, a Glide Bomb carries an 11/2 Ton Payload that caused serious damage to high-rise buildings Ukraine was using as Defensive Strongholds. Ukraine currently has no Effective Counter Remedy to defend against Glide Bombs which are also destroying Large Ukrainian Formations in the Open. Russia has a very very large quantity of FAB 500 M62 Bombs which can be converted to Glide Bombs at very little cost.

Russia is using the 1B75 Penicillin Counter Artillery System in this War. Rostec is a Counter Artillery System mounted on a Kam AZ Chassis which detects the launch of enemy Mortar, Artillery, and MLRS Weapon System. When a Ukrainian Soldier fires one of these weapons, Penicillin detects the launch in just Five Seconds allowing Russian Artillery/Missiles to find the Firing Position with Pinpoint Accuracy to deliver a Retaliatory Precision Strike. Penicillin is akin to American AN/TPQ-37 Fire finder and the Swedish-designed ARTHUR System. The only difference is, Penicillin uses Sound Waves to Track Projectiles instead of Radar used by Americans/ Swedes. An array/combination of Thermo Acoustic Sensors and Optical/Infrared Cameras detect Sound Waves produced by the incoming Fire Projectiles and Track them in Flight. The system is capable of tracking Shells and Rockets. It cannot be suppressed with Electronic Waves. Compared to a Fire finder capable of detecting projectiles at 50 kilometers, Penicillin has a range of 25 kilometers. But since it uses Sound Waves, Penicillin is almost impossible to find. Penicillin, along with Enhanced Jamming Techniques, curtails American HIMARS Systems very effectively.

In 2022, Russia repeatedly struck infrastructure in Ukraine to Knock out power plants, Disrupt water and internet distribution nodes and Cut electricity. She has been degrading Ukrainian Air Defence System by attacking High-Value Targets in Ukraine. Russia flooded Ukrainian Strike Area with cheap Geranium Drones to strike targets with Conventional Iskander Missiles. It was only in February 2023 that Russia began to use her First Generation Hypersonic Missile, Kinzhal.

Russia has a distinct edge over America/NATO in Hypersonic Missile Technology. Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile is capable of moving at Extreme Speeds and so cannot be detected/intercepted by America/ NATO. Russia has released a video wherein, a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine launched 30 Missiles into the air in just ninety seconds to find and bring down the Kinzhal and could not do so before being struck and destroyed by this Russian Hypersonic Missile. Kurzhals destroyed Ukrainian Air Defence Units given by America/NATO and targeted Ukrainian Warships. It can also carry a Nuclear Warhead. Kinzhal is only the First Generation of Russian Hypersonic missiles. She has two more versions in Prototype Stages. This War will compel America/NATO to rethink the deployment of their Carrier Groups/Fleets, conduct and save themselves from Russian Sukhoi 35 Fighters capable of launching Kinzhal that cannot be intercepted.

Russia has used her Assault Guns effectively in this War. It is a Large Gun on a Tank Chassis without a Turret. She modified her huge stock of old T-62 and T-54/55 Tanks for this purpose. The contraption is Hard to Detect. In an Armored Engagement, assault guns ambushing from camouflaged positions proved to be deadly weapons. These guns accounted for most of the Ukrainian/ American/NATO Tanks during the Offensive Battle of Izyum and Kherson. Russia lost very many Tanks in her initial Armored Thrusts against the Entrenched Ukrainian Infantry but managed to reverse the trend once she brought in this Assault Gun Contraption into war. Ukraine is begging the West for Leopards, Challengers, and Abrams Tanks to conduct her Offensive Operations but the West is apprehensive about the success as Russia has adapted and focused on using Tank Contraptions in an Assault Gun Role. Russia deploys these Assault Guns up to a mile from the Frontline to provide fire support for Infantry Battle Tank Groups. She uses Tanks in small numbers; one, two, or three tanks supporting Infantry and then moving back from the Direct Combat Zone avoiding/missing enemy Artillery/Missile Strikes.

Russia launched a new Radar Monitoring and Surveillance Satellite on 27 May 2023. It has a Very High-Resolution Radar capable of detecting a target within one meter of the ground. It can see the movement of Warships, Troops, Tanks, Aircraft, Vehicles, and Radars and can detect Artillery rounds/Missiles through Clouds, Rain, Snow, and any article at one meter of Ground Depth. Russia is going to launch another such satellite by July or August this year. This will be a major Game Changer in this War. Russia will be able to detect/watch every movement of Ukraine and destroy it. So, Russo-Ukraine War is likely to end by December 2023 due to her merciless and brutal Military Action under the umbrella of these new Satellites. She will totally burn/ruin Ukraine and then announce Cease Fire.

Russian Army has adapted to Changing Course of this War. America/NATO has never fought such an Artillery/Missile War. Their Operational Doctrines probably are Not Prepared for such War. Russia has inflicted huge Infrastructural and Human loss on Ukraine by initially going down but resurrecting again by making Adjustments and Revamping Military Ordinances and Tactics. She gained from her Initial Experience and showed Enormous Flexibility thereafter. She Will Not Quit but fight resolutely against the combined might of the West, without Active Chinese Support. Russia is evolving. We have to learn much from this War and Russian Resolution, Flexibility, Tenacity, and Adaptability. Hope We Do because it is our Only Salvation against Two Front War.