Pakistan nearing Doomsday: Analysis of the situation, its effects and precaution to guard ourselves from the fall out

Though Doomsday per se means a day when the world comes to an end, in today’s national context, it is not a physical catastrophe but when all systems of governance collapse, inflation goes beyond control, the population sees no future, and scarcity of all essential commodities keep skyrocketing and every day something very essential for human survival goes beyond the purchasing power of its general population, is termed as collapse of a nation and hence DOOMSDAY. Pakistan is now on these slippery slopes of downfall like Sudan, Somalia, Niger, Yemen, Syria etc.

Phases to the Doomsday.

Phase 1. In phase 1 of Impending Doomsday, the Central Government looses its control over the Provincial Governments and the functioning of Provincial Govts nearly stops as they cannot spare any budget for development. This phase continues for some time and forces the bureaucracy to work harder as its right to corruption gets threatened. It is this ability to continue corruption by the bureaucracy gives the nation a chance to delay the Doomsday and situation can be reversed if some White Knight Nation comes to their help.

Phase 2. In phase 2 the Central Govt and its central agencies starts failing. National currency rapidly starts losing value in the International Market. The internal situation remains disturbed and all security forces including Army gets involved to control the situation. In this phase the middle class / middle level of bureaucracy start their exodus to foreign land with the help of their relatives already settled.

Phase 3. In phase 3, the purchasing power of public starts reducing drastically on daily basis. This triggers agitation and riots and destruction of public property. These riots gain momentum in a very short time and efforts to control them results in alienation of increasing percentage of population against the enforcing agencies. At this stage, the middle class nearly finishes as their monthly earnings are not sufficient to even meet their daily needs. During mass protests new leadership starts emerging to voice the public grievances as existing leaders become targets of public wrath.

It is at this stage the flow of refugee starts seeking asylum in the neighbourhood. A neighbourhood means a nearby nation which is not harsh and has ability to absorb and provide basic facilities to the Refugees. If this country has a portion of population of sympathisers and facilitators to absorb the influx of Refugees duly supported by a sympathetic judiciary, then it becomes the preferred destination.

A brief on Historical facts of Pakistan.

History of creation and binding force of a nation has a strong influence on the manner and speed of its collapse. Hence let us see why, how and what lies ahead for Pakistan based on its historical background.

It is historic reality that Mr. Jinah or any other leader of the then Muslim League was never jailed by the Britishers for any freedom struggle. In fact Pakistan was created to accommodate the interests of Western World against the Soviet Union by combining the interests of the Loyal Princely States, Land Lords, and the greed of Mr. Jinah and other Muslim League Leaders including Mullas and Moulawis for their selfish interests. Let’s see one by one the Pakistani Leadership of the past to confirm this historic truth.

Mr. Jinnah. A distinguished Lawyer who never followed any Islamic diktats and always projected himself as a Brown Sahib was extremely ambitious and desperately wanted to be head of a nation. Since he would have never got opportunity to lead Free India, he started giving full back up to demand of separate Muslim State of Pakistan. He had no idea as to what Pakistan should be, what constitution it should have or what should be the role of this nation in full-filling the aspirations of its people. Basically he was interested in becoming a Viceroy of a country to enjoy all bureaucratic protocols and name in the history. In the end he got a country after massacre of 3 million people but died on the road in an Ambulance stopped due to mechanical failure. His care taker sister Fatima Jinnah left the world in similar manner when she was murdered in Pakistan and NO Govt of Pakistan had the guts to even bring her case to the court of law even today.

The Bueaucrats from Aligarh Muslim University. The educated Muslims mostly Ahmedias / Kadians from Aligarh were keen to replace the White Sahibs with similar perks and privileges in the administration in independent India. They knew that the systematic changes planned to be brought post-independence will ensure that they will remain public servants and not masters as their white role models. They also very well knew their limitations against their Hindu and Sikh counter parts, so they created enough hurdles in administration for pre independent Congress Ministry forcing it to accept partition to get read of them. They got Pakistan but within 15 years after 1947, the state of Pakistan declared them ‘NON-MUSLIMS’ and finished their hegemony over Pak Administration and they remain persecuted under blasphemy laws.

Feudal Lords of Pakistan. These were the real masters of British Raj who were enjoying total privileges, perks and phenomenal powers without any responsibility or accountability except loyalty to the crown. These families numbering about 500 and mostly Sunny Punjabi Muslims actually took over complete Pakistan by dominating military through relatives and plundered Pakistan with special concessions in every field. Even now they have total control over Pak Army, Bureaucracy, Judiciary and Industry. They have accumulated vast amount of Estates within Pakistan as well as in Britain, Canada and UAE. They are all settled in these countries and come to Pakistan only when a favourable political dispensation is at the helm of Pakistan to continue their plunder.

Bengali Muslims and Clergy. In East Bengal (ie East Pakistan and now Bangla desh), all land holders (Zamindars) were Hindus and a large labour population was Muslim. So there should have been communist movement but the Muslim politicians like Surhawardy managed to get Mullah and Moulawis to turn it in to communal movement to justify demand for Pakistan. Through ‘Direct Action Day’ i.e Massacre and looting of unsuspecting Hindu Population in Bengal specially in Kolkata they perpetuated violence with such ferocity that the Congress lost any hope of reconciliation and had to accept partition as reality. But after getting Pakistan the same Bengalis were fully exploited by West Pakistanis and were mercilessly raped, butchered and massacred by the Pak Army during formation of Bangladesh.

Indian Muslims and the Mohajirs. It is a historic fact that the people (Muslims) who voted for creation of Pakistan actually remained in India and those who did not give such support i.e. West Punjab and East Bengal became Pakistan. In fact Mr. Jinah had told Indian Muslims NOT TO MIGRATE TO PAKISTAN but remain in India and he termed these 2 Cr Muslim population as QURBANI for welfare of 6 Cr Muslims of Pakistan. However many Muslim families used it as an opportunity to send some members of their Families to Pakistan (Specially Karachi and Sindh) to drive out Hindus and Sikhs from these areas in Pakistan and acquire their properties and businesses with open support of Govt of Pakistan. This became more rampant after it was realised that the Indian Govt was not supporting QUID PRO QUO.

This sudden acquisition of properties and wealth and businesses in Pakistan by the Muslims migrated from India made them wealthy as they were better equipped and educated to take advantage of the vacuum generated due to forced mass exodus of Hindus and Sikhs. These migrated Muslims were named as MOHAJIRs and after 75 years they continue to hold the same title as no region has accepted them as Pakistanis. It is this community which will be relatively more vulnerable when riots start in full fury now.

Pak Army. The Muslim community especially from Punjab always remained loyal to the British Empire and hence they had very high representation in the British Indian Army in both Soldiers and Officers Class. This Punjabi Muslim dominated Army became the force to reckon with for the Pakistani Govt and in due course they themselves became the Govt. It is said that Pakistan does not have an Army but the Pak Army has a Country to themselves.
With their intense hatred for India and in order to continue dominance over Pakistan they made Pak Army a kind of mercenary force for anybody who was ready to pay. By joining Western Military Alliances they remained Modernly equipped and found all the favours for settlement of their Families and Children in UK, Canada and USA. Due to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the Pak Army remained relevant to NATO till collapse of USSR and when they were getting side lined , 9/11 happened making them relevant again.

With the withdrawal of US Army from Afghanistan now the relevance of Pakistan for the western world is nearly over. Hence the flow of Dollars has now stopped. But so far the Pak Army has acquired the taste of blood and started managing all lucrative Industries in Pakistan such as Steel and Cement production, Oil and Fuel distribution, transportation of US Supplies to Afghanistan etc. Since now income from USA has stopped, the Pak Army will search other areas to maintain their income levels. It is learned that Pak Army is now acquiring large tracts of farm land in Punjab to undertake collective farming by out-sourcing to Foreign Companies. This action will displace and finish employment of large number of Farmer families and they will have to fend for themselves.

Revealing Signs.

Since fall of Dhaka and surrender of Pak Army, the Nation state of Pakistan was perpetually living in Phase 1 state of levels of Dooms day. It was the White Knight i.e USA and NATO, who came to their rescue due to their own compulsions which ensured Pakistan’s continuance even in Phase 2.

But after withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan, Pakistan has lost its saviour and now has to fend for itself. Their hobnobbing with Chinese only ensured that Pakistan walks in to a debt trap and now the country has to borrow money to repay loans. What was projected to the Nation as Chinese Investment in CPEC is actually a loan given to Pakistan with 2 to 3 times higher interest rates whose refund has also become due.

a. Pakistan is already in Debt Trap.
b. Its elite has taken out whatever they could lay hands on to USA, UK, Canada and UAE.
c. Pakistan Rupee is falling rapidly against US Dollar.
d. Central Govt is only for namesake and has neither control over Provinces or other Central Agencies.
e. Provinces have No Funds for development or subsidy and hence except inflation everything is stagnant.
f. The non-state actors and religious fanatic clergies have slowly started calling the shots.
g. Pak army is being employed quite frequently on Internal Security duties.
h. Pak Judiciary is now open to support any agency which can share power and perks with them.
g. The Pakistani middle class is shrinking very rapidly and all technically qualified young people are desperately seeking migration by any means to USA, Europe, Canada, UAE etc.

Will Pakistan Break ?

Right from its inception Pakistan converted itself from a British Colony to a colony of Punjabi Sunni Muslims, kept together by its Army by showing fear of Hindu invasion against Islam. An effort to bind the country together with one language Urdu and common fear psychosis has already failed in 1971 after breaking up of East Pakistan.

However if anybody asks “Will Pakistan immediately disintegrate in the same fashion in to different smaller countries ?” then the answer is NO. The fact is Pakistan was never working as a monolithic country under a duly elected Central Govt in a Federal manner with its provinces. It was always working on the basis of power sharing adjustments within powerful families and Military and Religious Leadership. Public welfare and Laissez-faire governance with scientific mind-set and socialistic goals for grass root development was never ever tried in Pakistan hence in the present situation nothing of this nature will be amiss.

It will continue to exist like Somalia, Sudan, Niger, Yemen, Syria or some other small African State. The problem of Pakistan to its neighbours is because of uncontrolled population growth and failing agricultural production with history of becoming a Fedayeen Factory under the theocratic Islamic clergy.

Nuclear Assets of Pakistan. In May 1998 , four or five nuclear explosive devises were test fired in Baluchistan. These tests made Pakistan a Nuclear State. From various interviews of A Q Khan (The father of Pak Atom bomb) it is clear that he managed to smuggle Uranium Enrichment Technology and Equipment from Europe/ Canada in to Pakistan and then China sold them 10 Tons Uranium for enrichment which Pakistanis enriched. However there is no worthwhile evidence to prove that conversion of this enriched Uranium in to an Atom Bomb and developing its Trigger mechanism was done in Pakistan ? The Nuclear devices exploded in May 98 were exactly copy of Chinese first Atom bomb exploded in 1964.

Also before finally leaving Afghanistan, Americans must have ensured full accounting of enriched Uranium as this is the biggest threat to USA itself. So like Soviet Union, possession of nuclear Assets ( or whatever left of it) will not be a binding force for Pakistan .

From phase 4 onwards Pakistan will have provinces which will be chaotic and under control of different interest groups.

a. The North West Frontier Province ( KPK) will be like Afghanistan with some Taliban group calling the Shots.
b. Baluchistan will be under Chinese control as all CPEC assets are located in Baluchistan.
c. Sindh will remain as an estate of the Bhutto Family.
d. Pak-occupied Kashmir will continue its miserable existence as it existed for the last 75 years.
e. And Pakistani Punjab will remain under the stranglehold of Feudal Lord families along with Pak Military which will continue to acquire more land for collective farming.

What We have to Do ?

Threat of Conventional War.

Considering the state of Pakistan economy and thereby state of Military Hardware that it has to procure and maintain, it is most unlikely that Pakistan will try conventional war with India to divert nation’s attention. If they do it then their inadequacies will be fully exposed to their own public in a very short time. Notwithstanding this, at times Pakistan has started war on wrong analysis and stupid notions. So if they do it now, we have to be prepared. In normal course also we always prepare for such war and that preparation has to continue.

The situation in Pakistan is precarious and will go from bad to worst. It is our experience in the past, especially with East Pakistan that they prefer to migrate to India despite of getting separated from India at their own accord. The same will happen with now.

Along the International Border including LOC.

1. Do full fencing of Pak Border with state of the art surveillance devices and ensure very aggressive response to any intrusion, irrespective of age or gender of intruders.

2. Create detention centres close to border and do not permit any intrusion beyond detention Centre.

4. If the exodus is more and international pressures are very high then if necessary acquire some territory in Pakistan and establish refugee camps for food donations. The enclaves formed due to meandering of rivers in Punjab can be acquired and used for such camps.

Inside India.

7. Those giving shelter to illegal immigrants and to Pakistanis staying beyond their Visa period should loose their voting rights and the entire village / locality should be denied any voting rights as punishment.

9. NGOs trying to generate sympathy for such refugees should loose their registration and all properties of its promoters should be confiscated.

To conclude

A very serious time bomb is ticking on our Western Border. With no population control resulting in population explosion and non-availability of formal education, today, there are about 5 Cr Pakistani children in the age group of 6 to 16 who are getting Madarasa education. So they will only learn hatred of Indians and many Fedayeen’s can emerge from them for whom the actual life will start after death.

Very strict Nationalistic response is essential right from now to avoid getting submerged in this impending Dooms day of Pakistan.

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