Exit Poll predicts DMK-led alliance to retain power in Tamil Nadu, actor Vijay's dramatic debut expected too
Matrize predicts a victory for the DMK+, forecasting 122-132 seats, while giving the AIADMK-led alliance 87-100 seats.
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The Legislative Assembly elections in the state of Tamil Nadu were held on 23rd April 2026 to elect all 234 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The poll results will be declared on 4th May 2026. However, ahead of it, several exit polls have predicted a dramatic debut for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), giving it 98–120 seats, further placing it directly alongside the DMK-led alliance.
Axis My India predicts 92-110 seats for DMK, and between 22-32 seats for AIADMK.
Matrize predicts a victory for the DMK+, forecasting 122-132 seats, while giving the AIADMK-led alliance 87-100 seats.
P-Marq projects between 125-145 seats for DMK+, followed by AIADMK-led NDA alliance at 65-85 seats.
People's Pulse projects DMK+ gaining 125-145 seats, and NDA 65-80 seats.
JVC predicts 128-147 seats for AIADMK-led NDA, and 75-95 seats for DMK+.
As per the reports, the crucial contest in the state is between the DMK-led alliance and the NDA. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). Meanwhile, the NDA is led by AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as allies.
Notably, actor Vijay's party holds potential to change the political dynamics in the state. As per the exit polls, TVK is likely to secure around 35 per cent vote share, matching the MK-Stalin-led ruling bloc and leaving the AIADMK-BJP alliance far behind at roughly 23 per cent.
Vijay’s personal popularity has also played a significant role, with a section of voters supporting the party specifically because of him, reflecting a mix of personality-driven politics and anti-incumbency sentiment. TVK’s support is not limited to any one section of voters. The party has gained ground among OBC and SC communities, minority groups, and across both urban and rural regions, indicating a wide-based appeal.
Its vote share has risen across several caste groups compared to earlier trends, suggesting it is attracting support from multiple segments. Although TVK’s presence appears strongest in urban constituencies, the party is also making gains in rural areas, showing that its message has resonated beyond the cities.
The overall voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, which voted in a single phase on 23rd April, stood at 82.24 per cent, according to Election Commission of India figures.
According to the survey, TVK is likely to secure around 35 per cent vote share, matching the MK-Stalin-led ruling bloc and leaving the AIADMK-BJP alliance far behind at roughly 23 per cent. The projection also puts DMK-INC+ at 92–110 seats and NDA at 22–32, with TVK emerging as a parallel pole.
Axis My India predicts 92-110 seats for DMK, and between 22-32 seats for AIADMK.
Matrize predicts a victory for the DMK+, forecasting 122-132 seats, while giving the AIADMK-led alliance 87-100 seats.
P-Marq projects between 125-145 seats for DMK+, followed by AIADMK-led NDA alliance at 65-85 seats.
People's Pulse projects DMK+ gaining 125-145 seats, and NDA 65-80 seats.
JVC predicts 128-147 seats for AIADMK-led NDA, and 75-95 seats for DMK+.
Kamakhya Analytics predicts 78-95 seats for DMK+, and 68-84 for the AIADMK-led alliance.
As per the reports, the crucial contest in the state is between the DMK-led alliance and the NDA. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). Meanwhile, the NDA is led by AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as allies.
Notably, actor Vijay's party holds potential to change the political dynamics in the state. As per the exit polls, TVK is likely to secure around 35 per cent vote share, matching the MK-Stalin-led ruling bloc and leaving the AIADMK-BJP alliance far behind at roughly 23 per cent.
The demand for change has emerged as the dominant sentiment among voters. Around 35% cited it as their main reason for voting, while among TVK supporters, that figure surged to 77%, according to the exit poll.
Vijay’s personal popularity has also played a significant role, with a section of voters supporting the party specifically because of him, reflecting a mix of personality-driven politics and anti-incumbency sentiment. TVK’s support is not limited to any one section of voters. The party has gained ground among OBC and SC communities, minority groups, and across both urban and rural regions, indicating a wide-based appeal.
Its vote share has risen across several caste groups compared to earlier trends, suggesting it is attracting support from multiple segments. Although TVK’s presence appears strongest in urban constituencies, the party is also making gains in rural areas, showing that its message has resonated beyond the cities.
The overall voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, which voted in a single phase on 23rd April, stood at 82.24 per cent, according to Election Commission of India figures.