SECURITY SCAN II: Internal and External Security, Failure of Pakistan and Countering China - Pakistan Hybrid War
Indian security forces have to make a comprehensive plan for countering each and every hybrid war activity by China and Pakistan. It should be made very clear to them that they cannot go Scott free if they disturb India"s security.
NewsBharati 30-Jul-2022 11:30:57 AM
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I. Internal Security
This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security. Attempt has also been made to analyze these events and recommend certain specific actions that can be undertaken by India.
Countering Economic Subversion By Xiaomi, Oppo, OnePlus, Vivo
Indian investigative agencies launched a crackdown against Vivo, for channeling around $7.9 billion or Rs 624-odd billion outside India, mainly to China, to escape the tax liabilities.
The amount laundered was almost half of the company’s total sales revenue in India, around Rs 1.25 trillion, since 2014. By channeling the funds outside India, Vivo was able to cite losses and thus, avoid paying taxes for the companies incorporated in India.
The investigative agencies raided properties of Vivo in India across 48 locations. Assets that included 119 bank accounts with a total balance of Rs 4.65 billion and gold bars worth two kilograms were seized. There also found forged identification and addresses of incorporating companies in India.
Agencies, found a unit in Shimla with three Chinese directors had the address of a government building. The directors used several companies with little history to channel funds to Vivo India.
This is not the first case of tax evasion that the agencies in India are investigating. Xiaomi, Oppo, and OnePlus have been on the government’s radar for similar practices since last year. The raids were undertaken in December 2021, with offices of contract manufacturers for Xiaomi in India. Eventually, Xiaomi was ordered to pay the $88 million it owed in import taxes between 2017 and 2020. In April, assets worth $730 million were seized, since the company, had channeled funds outside India.
Countering China and Predatory Investments
In March 2022 under Production Linked Incentive Schemes manufacturing of 35 critical APIs was underway in India. Earlier, import dependence on China for these APIs exceeded 90 per cent.
In April, Apple began producing iPhone 13 in India. Similar to pharma, the Indian government has initiated PLIs in other sectors which include electronics, auto components, batteries, solar modules, to name a few. Given the size of investments committed, more brands and corporations are expected to come and ‘build in India, for India, and for the world’. The days of the Chinese getting a free pass in India are over. India has been upping the ante against China. The pushback is only getting stronger against China, be it company practices, Huawei, data security, import dependence of critical materials, or supply-chain diversification.
Reduce Trade Gap With China
The bilateral commerce with China, starting with a negative figure of $743.85 mn in 1999-2000, shot up to $72.9 bn in 2021-22, proving ruinous to India’s current account deficit. Making matters worse, India’s forex have fallen, thanks to the India-China trade deficit.
We must curb unessential imports to reduce trade gap with China.
Controlling Khalistani Extremism In Europe, Canada, USA
NSA Ajit Doval raised issue of UK-based violent extremism in the context of Sikh radicals and other radical groups with his counterpart from the UK Stephen Lovegrove on 21 Jul.
Khalistani extremism and terrorism is being nurtured in Europe, Canada and USA by few radicals. We should use our diplomatic power to neutralize anti Indian activities in these countries.
Creating Job
MHA has decided to fill up 84,405 existing vacancies in CAPFs by Dec 2023.
The 10 per cent reservation to be given to Agniveers in the recruitment to posts of constables in central armed police forces will be horizontal and not affect the 50 per cent ceiling kept by the Supreme Court, Rajya Sabha was informed on 25 Jul. An in-principle approval has been given for reservation of 10 per cent of vacancies for ex-Agniveers in the recruitment to the post of constable (general duty), rifleman in the Central Armed Police Forces and Assam Rifles.
Filling up of vacancies of CAPF will create job opportunities for eligible youth. They must start preparing for various enrollment examinations.
Igniting Dormant Spirit of Patriotism
'हर घर तिरंगा' is undoubtedly a laudable initiative but it's conduct requires adequate planning and education. The Nation in general must be taught the correct way of hoisting The Flag at public places, atop buildings and flats in multi- storied buildings, vehicles and other places. Else, The National Flag may, unknowingly, be flying at half mast, on broken or half bent poles or some other aberration.
The disposal of The Flag after 15th Aug is important. Those who respect The Flag will take appropriate action but others, unknowingly or otherwise, may provide juicy fodder to the media. Photographs with inappropriately disposed Flags with reprehensible comments will be published. The media should be warned, NOT to publish any inadvertent errors in either hoisting or disposal of the National Flag .
Winning Information Warfare
Govt may make intermediaries such as Facebook, Twitter ‘accountable’ for fake news. The move is part of proposed amendments to the rules under the Information Technology Act, which gives the administration prerogative to spell out compliances not specified under the parent law. The government run a fact-checking mechanism under its Press Information Bureau of India.
It has to be made very clear to the technology giants like Google, Facebook ,Twitter that India's national security is of prime importance and these platforms will work under the Indian laws and not compromise India's national security in any manner.
II. External Security
Infrastructure Developments on LOC, LAC, International Border
The government has constructed 2,088 kms of roads in areas bordering China in the last five years with an expenditure of Rs 15,477 crore. In total, the government spent Rs 20,767 crore in constructing 3,595 kms of border roads during the period that included those in areas along the frontiers with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, according to the details provided in Lok Sabha.
Rs 4,242.38 crore was spent to construct 1,336.09 kms of road along the border with Pakistan, while an expenditure of Rs 882.52 crore was incurred to build 151.15 kms road along the frontier with Myanmar in the last five years.
Infrastructure development is taking place rapidly along the LOC, LAC and International border. However all locations on the border should be opened up for tourism so that people living on the border will benefit because of tourism industry and also Indian presence in remote border areas. This has already being done in Ladakh. It should be done in northeast.
Make In India Progressing Rapidly
The Defence Acquisition Council headed by Rajnath Singh granted acceptance of necessity for a variety of systems that will only be procured from Indian companies and will need to meet stringent requirements for indigenized content.
Private sector players venturing into military manufacturing are likely to see intense competition with the defence ministry giving its go-ahead for the procurement of small arms and swarm drones, among other systems, worth ₹28,732 crore.
Adani Defence and Kalyani group are likely to be among the major bidders for the carbine contracts.
Use of Artificial Intelligence On Air craft carriers and Submarines
The Indian Navy received the first indigenously-built aircraft carrier from Cochin Shipyard Ltd on 27 Jul and will commission it as INS Vikrant.
Artificial Intelligence is providing the modern approach to handle the complex-next-generation-warfare and the adaptation level of AI will decide move of wars.
Indian Navy is integrating AI into its ship systems, weapons, networks, and command and control as advanced algorithms to shape the entire matrix.
Strategic Aspects National Security
India, US are deepening their defence ties.The Khanna amendment provides an excellent platform to make that partnership even stronger. It will enable India to diversify its defence acquisitions, without compromising the country’s immediate security needs.There have also been a number of defence related joint initiatives between the two countries lately. The US granted India “Strategic Trade Authorization tier 1” status, allowing the country to acquire a number of military and dual-use technologies. What should India do to create a win-win situation for itself and Tibetans?
Several foreign governments have raised the Tibetan issue, but India’s silence is disturbing.
The Dalai Lama, the Tibetan government-in-exile, and a large diaspora of Tibetans are assets for India, which must be leveraged whenever China raises Kashmir issue.
III. Pakistan a Failed State?
Does Pakistan Have the Capability to Secure CPEC Projects?
China is pressurizing Islamabad to deploy Chinese private security personnel to guard its projects and nationals in Pakistan. So far, Pakistan has denied the request, saying that its security forces are capable of doing the job. However China prefers to secure CPEC projects with the presence of private security firms, because of lack of confidence in Pakistan.
The deployment of Chinese security firms can complicate matters for Pakistan as it has to explain the decision to Pakistani people.
Cash strapped Pakistan got a last-minute bailout package of USD 6 billion from international monetary fund, after China refused to come to its rescue from debt liabilities running several billions USD.
Federal Minister for Planning, Ahsan Iqbal has requested all Pakistanis to cut consumption of tea by 1-2 cups daily to save economy from collapsing.
Level of violence in Pakistan is very heavy. The economy is failing and Pakistan may go the Sri Lanka way. We have to be watchful about developments in Pakistan to keep our borders secure.
IV. Chinese Hybrid War On World
Hybrid War Against Taiwan
Taiwan is likely to spark a military escalation between the US and China. Under the complicated web of agreements governing relations with Beijing, Washington only grants formal diplomatic recognition to the People's Republic.
Ms Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, is planning a visit to the Taiwan. But China has warned of 'consequences' for the US if they proceed with the visit.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told Australian public broadcaster ABC7 that China is close to having the military capability to invade Taiwan.
Hybrid War Against UK
Rishi Sunak leading candidate in the ongoing race to be next Prime Minister of UK has said that the Chinese Communist Party represents the “largest threat to British and the world’s security.
Liz Truss another front runner in UK election has vowed to speed up Commonwealth trade deals to curb China’s ‘malign influence. Liz Truss has unveiled plans to boost trade between Commonwealth nations and stop China from buying up influence in some of the world’s developing countries. She is alarmed at the “malign influence” Beijing has exerted in recent times.
Europe and America is greatly worried about hybrid war by the Chinese. Since we face similar problem, it is a good opportunity to build up alliances with them to fight against the Chinese unitedly.
Managing Fall out Ukraine Russia War
Heavy artillery duals between the two continue causing heavy losses.
Military-industrial complex, has been the ultimate beneficiary of Ukraine conflict arms supply. 2022 alone their revenue is up to $19.5 billion.
Russia has cut off or reduced gas to a dozen EU countries so far. On 25 Jul, it said it will slash flows this week through a major pipeline to Germany by another half, to 20% of capacity. During the war, the EU has approved bans on Russian coal and most oil to take effect later this year, but it did not include natural gas.
European Union nations struggled on 25 Jul to find common ground on how to wean the bloc off its reliance on Russian natural gas, seeking to appease wary, stressed consumers at home while upholding unity as Moscow turns down the tap.
India has been able to manage fallouts of Russia Ukraine war better than most. We have been able to get crude from Russia at concessional rates to manage our energy security.
After 6 months gap we will be able to get 50,000 tons of Sunflower oil from Ukraine. This will help in our food security.
V. Week's final takeaway for India
Indian military actions in Kargil war were replete with heroic acts by young officers and soldiers of Indian Army. Now we have to counter Chinese Hybrid war/Multi domain war 365 days a year. Indian security forces have to make a comprehensive plan for countering each and every hybrid war activity by China and Pakistan. It should be made very clear to them that they cannot go Scott free if they disturb India's security. Europe America is worried by various hybrid war activities by China. We have to build up alliances so that help can be taken from democratic countries to counter Chinese challenges together.
For more detailed analysis, WATCH:
BRIG Hemant Mahajan
Passionate writer on National Security related issues, Brig Hemant Mahajan YSM (Retd) is M Sc, M Phil in Defence Studies. He joined IMA Dehradun in July 1973 and passed out as a Commissioned Officer on 15 June 1975. He was commissioned into 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY. He has served extensively in Counter Insurgency Operations in Insurgency and Terrorist prone areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and North East and has taken part in all important operations undertaken by the Army since 1975.
Brig Hemant Mahajan served in Jammu & Kashmir, in the deserts of Rajasthan, in Super High Altitude areas of Kargil and Leh, forward areas of Arunachal Pradesh. He was deployed in Punjab in ‘Operation Avert’. He was also involved in maintaining peace post ‘Operation Bluestar’ days in Punjab in the worst affected district of Gurdaspur, Taran Taran and Amritsar.He served in the areas of Darjeeling, Kurseong, Siliguri and Sikkim. He commanded his battalion 7 MARATHA LIGHT INFANTRY in Operation Rakshak in the most difficult areas of Poonch and Rajouri during the times of highest militancy. His unit was responsible for stopping terrorists from Pakistan into Jammu and Kashmir. His unit was awarded Unit Citation, 18 gallantry awards including YSM (gallantry) for the officer.