Are opinion polls & exit polls really independent surveys?

Now that all the heat and dust have settled around the epoch-making Assembly Elections of 2026, we can sit back and discuss something that has been bothering me for a few days. Honestly, I am a sucker for Opinion Polls since the days of Prannoy Roy and periodic surveys by India Today about the State of the Nation. I know that they can go wrong, I know some can be set up by political parties. Opinion Polls can be used as a psychological game, so some political parties may be engineering opinion polls, though they too can go wrong. The voter is the king, no doubt, and clever too, as failed Exit polls show.

We also know that even reputed pollsters dilute their findings, fearing giving real numbers as per their complex algorithms, because they may seem too adventurous. A pollster cannot risk his/her business. So, they moderate their findings to avoid such risks. I am aware that even exit polls are moderated to suit ‘on the other hand’ type of opinions to avoid controversy.


Then came up the curious case of Mr Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India. AMI of Mr Gupta is one of the most successful pollsters. He has gone wrong many fewer times than many other well-known, well-established pollsters. He stands his ground boldly and is ready to suffer the consequences of being trolled or ridiculed because of his track record. Hence, I was surprised by this case.

I was in the Republic studios on the day and heard him live on 4 May in the studio when Arnab Goswami asked him clearly if he had published his West Bengal opinion poll and exit poll anywhere? He flatly denied. Like a good host, Arnab did not hassle him and let it pass.

However, I found an actual report in The Stateman that carried his poll. The Statesman is also a very old and reputable newspaper of Kolkata. I posted a tweet, and it went viral.

I was curious, why did Pradeep Gupta not own up or deny this news? Why did he not make The Statesman withdraw the report as fictitious? Despite a highly viral tweet, neither Axis My India nor The Statesman thought it fit to respond.

I persisted one more time with a reminder after one day -


Controversy cannot be buried as The Statesman published AMI’s exit poll, in which it showed TMC victory. Why did Axis My India (AMI) chicken out and claim that they would not publish the exit poll results of West Bengal? I am curious.

AMI claimed that only 25% of respondents were speaking to its surveyors due to the fear factor. AMI had conducted an opinion poll in Bengal in 2021 during COVID. At that time, it released its exit poll, implying it got sufficient responses even during the pandemic. Unfortunately for them, the call went wrong.


Their sample size was 44000+ for 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, i.e., 0.09% of 4.95 Cr votes polled. Mr Gupta could call out the Exit poll there, but not in West Bengal. Was IMA unsure, as all other pollsters were more or less sure of a BJP win, while he got different results? Or was it suppressed to suit a TV channel’s views? Or was it fear of the BJP because the party did not wish to be shown as a losing West Bengal? But then IMA released a Tamil Nadu survey where the BJP was losing.

While Opinion Polls can create a narrative, sometimes wrongly, as we saw in 2024, Exit polls cannot do much except give hope to some and disappointment to some, as voting is already over. They can, of course, boost TRPs of the TV channels and excitement to the audience, causing no harm to anybody. An exit poll is not an opinion poll, though it is more difficult to predict.

The two cases mentioned above leave a lot of questions unanswered. If the channel that withheld the Tamilnadu opinion poll and if AMI and The Statesman issue clarifications, it will restore the credibility of Opinion and Exit polls. I would personally be grateful, as it would restore my faith in opinion polls as indicators of public mood and help us form opinions.