The Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

American repositioning in the context of Indian self Interest

In international relations as in Golf, ‘Stance’ matters the most. Taking a shot with a wrong stance can have your ball land in a bunker, woods or even a water hazard! Though an avid golfer, POTUS- Donald Trump in the last several months had been shifting his stance on a daily basis on the geopolitical turf. He is firing too many shots in several direction at once and unable to track the targets targeted by his salvos. MBRL a - Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher at least fires in a controlled manner for you to see the outcome. With such a centrifugal force Oval office has become circlular- which is sending the white house staff in a spin.

In the beginning of his term, he did display mutual respect for India by cosying up to Prime Minister Modi and bear hugs was the order of the day duly caught on camera- in and outside the then oval office. The signalling and stance by POTUS were a welcome move to take Indo-US relations to higher heights than during Biden times – so we thought. Now disappointed.

Trump started looking awkward within a short time as he could neither stop Russia Ukraine war (which was just a day long affair he thought) nor he stop Israel Hamas conflict going on in the Gaza strip. He came up with ridiculously funny tariffs on all and sundry, started cracking on immigrants, college campuses and on his supporters like Elon Musk too. He has recently been nick named TACO ‘trump always chickens out’ -yeah. His trade war as a liberation day and MAGA ‘make America great again’ went kaput. His own partymen were unhappy and so was the American public. He started doing too many things at once and taking three steps at a time when even two can trip you. Hop step and jump- he is hopping or jumping.

India kept its stance with an upright backbone even during peak of Russian Ukraine war and imported Russian oil, spelling out its national interest loud and clear. India has maintained a balanced approach to the Ukraine conflict, maintaining good relations with both Russia and the West. This has allowed India to benefit from increased access to Russian resources, including oil.

Bilateral trade has grown significantly, exceeding $65 billion in 2023-24. Indian companies invest in Russia's oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and IT sectors, while Russian companies invest in India's energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors.

We also got our three out of five S 400 air defence systems from Russia despite protests from America back then. The S-400, also known as the "Sudarshan Chakra," is a highly advanced long-range missile defence system, capable of tracking and engaging multiple targets simultaneously, including aircraft, drones, and missiles.
India had to go through a very rough patch with Pakistan as they killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam in Kashmir basis religion. Op Sindoor was launched and which India pulled off on its own- without any American help. JD Vance- their Vice president said that this conflict was none of their business- cool. Three S 400 systems were integrated into our overall scheme of things. We also took Rafael jets from France inking a deal in 2018. Now France in recent days is going to make Rafael fuselages in India and Russians are giving us their advanced stealth fighter jets SU 57. Media report says-

‘In a move that has sent ripples through global defence circles, Russia has extended an extraordinary offer to India, proposing the sale of its advanced Su-57E stealth fighter jet with full access to its source code too, according to regional sources cited by Arabic Defence.’

Indo Ruso's relation to further strengthen

India and Russia share a long-standing, multifaceted relationship characterized by strong political, economic, defence, and cultural ties. This is an open secret. Bilateral trade has significantly increased in recent years, reaching record highs, and both nations are cooperating in various areas like defence, nuclear energy, and space. The relationship is often described as a "strategic partnership," with both countries recognizing the importance of a multipolar world order today.

Russia -USSR- stood with us during 1971 war with Pakistan when UK and US supported Pakistan. We have been importing military hardware from Russia for decades. India is a major customer of Russian military equipment, and the two countries have a strong history of joint military exercises and defence technology cooperation. They collaborate on projects like the production of T-90 tanks and Su-30 MKI aircraft in India.

While bilateral trade has grown, India's imports from Russia significantly exceed its exports, creating a trade imbalance. Efforts are underway to address this imbalance and increase Indian exports to Russia.

Russia has been a key partner in India's nuclear energy program. The two countries are also cooperating on research and development in nuclear technology.

Both India and Russia share a vision for a multipolar world order and have aligned on several international issues. India is seen as a critical partner for Russia's "pivot to the East".

While, America may not trust Russia- old cold war rivalry- there is no reason for India not to trust Russia.
The west still feels that they are the masters and global south is their slave. This is a problem of mindset. In Hindi we say ‘Rassi jaal gayi, lekin baal nahi gaya’- roughly translates that even if a rope is burnt fully, the knots still hold. This is very true for Europe.

As Trump lashes out at President Putin of Russia, India and Russia are quietly recalibrating their relationship. diplomatic outreach to New Delhi, aiming to revive the Russia India China- RICH- troika as a counter to QUAD.
When I was growing up, my parents told me, 'Finish your dinner. People in China and India are starving.' Now I tell my daughters, 'Finish your homework. People in India and China are starving for your job.'
Thomas Friedman


American support to Pakistan despite terrorism

Trump in clear terms had been saying that he wants to annihilate terrorism. This brought him closer to India which has been at the receiving end of Pakistan sponsored terror for decades.

But on this aspect also Trump is doing flip flop.

He has very recently banned people coming from 12 nations- mostly Muslims. But Pakistan is not on this list. At the same time through IMF, they are getting bail out- obviously with approval of US. Trump is also giving them fighter aircraft.

Ambassador Deepak Vohra the other day on a podcast clearly stated that Americans had their nukes in Nur Khan base in Pakistan which was hit or got hit by India during Op Sindoor. They were parked in Pakistan to be handy in case China created problems. Sure, Chinese would be knowing it too.

Now the pretending gloves are off as the cat is out of the bag- he also stated that Pakistan does not have its own nukes.

In such a situation who will trust America? Of course, you need to keep old friends in good humour while you build new relations or strengthen your old equations. In International equation it is always a balancing act and a nation decides basis the situation in real time.

Since America is still tilting towards Pakistan- well seeing Indias fresh wounds during the recent conflict, India needs to recalibrate its stratagem to keep its borders safe. We need to self-empower the global South too.

American and Russian Bases across the world

The US military has roughly 750 military bases in at least 80 countries around the world. This number may be higher as not all data is publicly released by the Pentagon. This constitutes the largest number of foreign military bases compared to any other nation or empire in world history.

Many US bases were established in the aftermath of World War II and the Cold War, often as part of occupation treaties or to help contain the spread of communism. Even after collapse of USSR they still are intact ; on as is where is basis. The presence of US military bases can also have a positive economic impact on host countries, providing jobs and contributing to local economies.

Camp Humphreys in South Korea is the largest US military base overseas, with a population bigger than some US cities and costing over $10 billion.

In comparison, Russia has around 21 significant military bases abroad, with most of them located in or near former Soviet states. The majority of Russia's military bases and facilities are located in former Soviet republics; which in Russian political parlance is termed the "near abroad".

While the US has far more bases globally, Russia is known to maintain a network of bases that helps it project influence in regions like the Arctic, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet republics.

There can be no doubt in anyone’s mind that Indo Russian relations have been strong historically and in recent years they have further strengthened.

At the same time there are talks between Russia, India and China to strengthen their cooperation- mainly to tilt balance of power towards the global South. Russia- India-China trio is going to be a reality soon. Russia and China seem to be on the same page and Russia wants to maintain equi-cordial relations with both India and China. It is in every one’s interest to keep US in check with this trio.

Recently Americans stated that America needs to keep good relations with India as well as Pakistan- good luck bro.

India's challenges and how to hedge risks – Russian Presence

Today, India faces a challenge from the West with Pakistan (getting support from the west-especially US), Bangladesh on the East is in a total Chaos, presumably propped up by the US. China in the north is no comfort for India under the present circumstances. Though China has its hands full with other problems including Taiwan on the boil.

India cannot and may not like to handle multidirectional threat as it stands now. Therefore, RICH makes a lot of sense.

Kashmir being the life and blood as an existential punching bag for Pakistan, It, needs to be countered in kind through RICH.

It may be a stretch to suggest some reasonable presence of Russians in Kashmir- at a place with which it can keep Pakistan under a watch and check and also keep China in good humour through RICH. As of now the biggest presence as a Russian base is around 5000 people in Armenia.

Russia gets to expand its presence and footprint and India further demonstrates its solidarity with Russia and gets a reliable nation in the troubled area.

The most suitable location can be jointly decided by India and Russia. If a training cum cooperation contingent can be positioned, it will keep Pakistan in check and also attract Russian corporate investments into the region.

'Dosti se zyada kuch nahi hota': Russian Ambassador quotes Indian saying describing Russia-India ties