Let us be very clear on two counts, the worst nightmare for Pakistani psyche is that India becomes super power and Pakistan becomes a pauper. Now, as the things stand now, this looks to be an early possibility as nightmare takes a shape.
As a Pakistani decision maker, why should he not make every effort to derail India’s growing international status and derail it, if possible. It will make every effort to degrade India’s effort to enhance its global footprint in every field. If things look quiet on the border because Pakistan does not have anything to fight as disclosed by former Pakistan COAS Gen Bajwa, suddenly you will find Pakistan sponsored terrorism raising its head once again.
Why this time?
Three important events have to take place in next year. Shanghai Cooperation Organization foreign ministers are meeting in Goa in coming July, G 20 Summit meeting is taking place in September and President Biden is coming to attend it, and then we have elections in 2024 in which Modi is expected to be elected again. So, how to derail Modi’s bid for reelection? They have to show a weak and ineffective Modi. Now, you can corelate it with Pulwama attack before 2019 elections. Elections are due in another 12 months in India.
Let us see what is happening in Pakistani political elite. Each one is fighting for its political survival, individuals and institutions both. It is a no hold barred battle in which global players are involved and taking sides. Pakistan ruling elite and Army is taking sides as well. Western block cannot accept Imran Khan as PM in Pakistan with his political ideology of Islamic Pakistan with strategic autonomy or even status at par with India. His obsession with India is well known. Radicalization of Pakistan society has gone to the extent that anybody keen to start trade with India or initiating dialogue with India or resolving Kashmir problem will be out of favor with masses.
In Jammu and Kashmir, a big connect has taken place between public and state administration and this connect is threatening Pakistani govt and ISI hold on militancy. Pakistani establishment is worried about this. In many villages and in towns, many people refused to celebrate Eid in support of martyrs and that shows just one aspect of changing perception in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in Kashmir valley.
So, where does Pakistan finds itself, internally and externally. A lost case indeed. Once the radicalization in Islamic society takes place, who will call the shots, either Mullahs or those who are in league with them. Imran Khan is not called Taliban Khan for nothing; he is riding a tiger.
So, what is the solution for Pakistan? They have to be obsessed with India. It’s a compulsion with them otherwise how they can hide their failures. Entire state policy, dialogue, international discussions, trade talks, weapon purchase, development of alliances, military pacts, everything has to be India centric. The basic fundamental of Pakistan existence is not how much progress it can make in terms of polity, governance, administration and economy but how much it can pull India down through its direct and indirect efforts. This obsession has put Pakistan in a fix by putting itself in bed with China and creating a rift with western alliance’s particularly USA. CPEC and BRI yet to benefit Pakistan but it has certainly made itself suspicious character in international arena. Shariff govt is trying to amend the situation by supplying arms to Ukraine through clandestine routes and ways but its days are numbered and threat of Martial law is looming large. Alternative is Imran Khan which establishment is not ready to accept.
What is Modi govt up to?
When some of the Indian detractors have word of appreciation for India’s growth story and when one sees on the ground the Aadhar revolution, opening of bank accounts and digital revolution, entire world gets impressed. Modi govt will ensure that 2006 story of deception when India was poised to jump and did not jump into the economic bandwagon, is not repeated. Notwithstanding detractors like Hindenburg, George Soros and his gang, Victoria Nuland and his gang of leftist -liberals in India, Anti national elements and their supporters in Indian social media, judiciary and establishment, this govt is too determined to be stopped by anybody. People like Satpal Malik or wrestlers’ agitation and political cooking out of it, will come and go but focus of the government will be on India’s growth story this time. Once India becomes self-reliant, that will further open the door for real strategic autonomy in international issues. That will be real nightmare for Pakistani collective psyche.
As India progresses, Pakistanis will challenge its self-identity and self-esteem will hit further low. Society which has been hit by internal terrorism issues, inflation and poverty will worry on two accounts, its elite will be challenged for their wrong doings and that will put pressure on Pakistani Army and secondly attempts to threaten India through saboteurs will increase. All attempts will be made to alienate Indian Muslims from mainstream India. Politicians like Mamta Didi and Akhilesh Yadav/ Lalu Yadav, along with Congress will make all out efforts to appease Indian Muslims while directly or indirectly supporting radicalization of the Muslims of India. PFI and organizations like that which have been banned will emerge in different forms. Reports of West Bengal and Kerala are alarming as Indians wait for government action to make amendments in the situation which is purely anti national in nature. All these efforts will be multiplied before 2024 elections so that Modi does not return to power and India’s growth story is automatically derailed.
Does Pakistan have a chance to go back on the drawing board and change its strategic options? Unfortunately, it is negative. They do not have leader like Anwar Sadat who just took the U turn and signed Camp David agreement in national interest while alienating every country in Islamic world.
He was assassinated but fruits of that agreement are being harvested by Egypt even today with prosperous society. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, neither there is a visionary leader not a class of elites who is not self-centered and has the guts and courage to do that. More than that, India is not Israel. It is too powerful a country to compromise on any issue. There is hardly a trust for Pakistan and its system, in India, keeping in view its past record.
Pakistan has taken its society in such a direction that now, it does not have a choice of course correction. Its obsession with India and its growth is its compulsion. Neither it can accept its failure nor do its course correction to avoid implosion. Its nuclear stockpile which was considered an asset at one time, has become a liability for its maintenance requirement plus threat to its security as terrorists look for it.
The entire scenario makes India and Pakistan dangerous neighbors. Two nuclear powers are on dangerous course of history and choice has to be made by Pakistan? It wants to make course correction or wish to implode due to internal contradictions. Both the options are dangerous. More than anything else, Pakistan needs a Modi who can take it ahead and manage the course of history. Geographies do change over a period of time and Pakistan; it seems is looking at it, worriedly. Will its obsession with India will take it in that direction.